A
bellwether is any entity in a given arena that
serves to create or influence trends or to presage future
happenings.
The term is derived from the
Middle
English bellewether and refers to the practice of
placing a
bell around the neck of
a
castrated ram (a
wether) leading its flock of
sheep.The movements of the flock could be
noted by hearing the bell before the flock was in sight.
Politics
In
politics, the term is more often applied
in the passive sense to describe a geographic region where
political tendencies match in
microcosm those of a wider area,
such that the result of an
election in the
former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a
Westminster-style election, for
example, a
constituency, the control of
which tends frequently to change, can mirror in its
popular vote the result on a national
scale.
Australia
In
Australian federal elections, the
electoral divisions of
Eden-Monaro in New South Wales and
Leichhardt in Queensland have
elected Members of Parliament from the party which won government
at every federal election since
1972. The
Division of Lindsay in NSW has elected
its member of parliament from the party which won government in
every Federal election since its creation in 1984. It is the only
existing division in the country to have such a bellwether title.
The electoral
Division of
Macarthur in New South Wales was a bellwether from the
1949 election until
2004. However, at
the
2007 election
Macarthur stayed as a Liberal seat despite a change of government,
with sitting MP
Pat Farmer narrowly
surviving a 11% swing against him.
The state of New South Wales
could also be considered a bellwether, as the party
which wins government has won the majority of House of Representatives
seats in that state at every election since 1963. Unlike many
bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record
and are not usually attributed demographic factors that reflect the
median of Australia.
Canada
In the
Canadian
province of Ontario
, Sarnia-Lambton (and its predecessor ridings)
have voted for the winning party in every federal election
beginning with 1963. Also in
Ontario,
Peterborough has been won
by the party who has won the most seats overall in provincial
elections since 1977.
United Kingdom
In the
United
Kingdom
, the Basildon
constituency
has reflected the overall result in every General Election since its creation in
1974. Gravesham
and its predecessor Gravesend had a
perfect record of voting for the winning party or the one with the
largest share of the vote in every election from the First World
War until 2005, when they voted Conservative. Bristol North West
is also considered something of a bellwether, with
its voters having elected the candidate of the winning party in
every election since October 1974, though it failed to do so on a
number of occasions prior to this.
United States
States
In the
United
States
, Missouri
, often
referred to as the Missouri
bellwether, has produced the same outcome as the national
results in every presidential election
beginning in 1904, except in
1956 and
in 2008.
However,
since the 2008 election, Missouri's status as the best bellwether
state is in doubt, with both Nevada
and Ohio
appearing to
match the national results more consistently. The American
bellwether states are
[141392]:
In
addition, the Territory
of Guam
has had no misses from 1984 on
(100.0%). Guam has no electoral college votes, but conducts
a
straw vote on local election day.
Counties
American bellwether
counties include:
- Vigo County, Indiana
(county seat: Terre Haute
) - 2 misses (1908, 1952) from 1892 on, perfect
since 1956 Since 1960, Vigo County had been within 3 percent of the
national presidential vote every election. In 2008, Vigo
County again voted with the winner, but Obama's percentage of 57.3%
was about 4.4% above Obama's national vote.
A list of the top 50 American bellwether counties between 1980 and
2004 is available
here.
Stock market
In the
stock market, a bellwether
(
barometer stock in the UK) is the stock of a
company that is regarded as a leader in its given
industry. The performance of the stock is said to reflect the
performance of the industry in general. These stocks are used as
barometers for the rest of the market.
JPMorgan Chase is an example of a bellwether
stock. As one of the major bank in the US, it sets the tone for the
rest of the industry. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with
companies in other industries so its performance is reflected in
other sectors of the market.
Sociology
In
sociology, the term is applied in the
active sense to a person or group of people who tend to create,
influence or set
trends.
Business
Trends in expenditure in the UK advertising and marketing industry
are monitored in the quarterly Bellwether Report, published by the
Institute of
Practitioners in Advertising (IPA).
See also
Notes
-
http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/BELLWETHER/bellwether.php
-
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95617378&ps=cprs
- http://www.tribstar.com/news/local_story_309164330.html
-
http://buffalo.bizjournals.com/buffalo/stories/2008/11/03/story3.html?b=1225688400^1724830
- 2 misses (1976, 2000) from
1912 on
(92%). New Mexico is the only state to vote for the winner
of the presidential popular vote in every election from 1980 to
2008.
- 2 misses (1960, 2008) from
1928 on
(90.5%).
- 2 misses (1960, 1992) from
1928 on
(90.5%).
- 2 misses (2000, 2004) from
1952 on
(86.7%).
(county seat: San Antonio
) - perfect since 1972.
(county seat: Mayville) -
perfect since 1980, 2 misses since 1960.
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