An
energy crisis is any great
bottleneck (or price
rise) in the supply of
energy
resources to an
economy. In popular
literature though, it often refers to one of the energy sources
used at a certain time and place.
Causes
Market failure is possible when
monopoly manipulation of markets occurs. A
crisis can develop due to industrial actions like union organized
strikes and government embargoes. The
cause may be
over-consumption,
aging
infrastructure,
choke point disruption or bottlenecks at
oil refineries and port facilities that
restrict fuel supply. An emergency may emerge during unusually cold
winters due to increased consumption of energy.
Pipeline failures and other accidents may cause minor interruptions
to energy supplies. A crisis could possibly emerge after
infrastructure damage from
severe
weather. Attacks by terrorists or
militia on important infrastructure are a possible
problem for energy consumers, with a successful strike on a
Middle East facility potentially causing
global shortages. Political events, for example, when governments
change due to regime change, monarchy collapse,
military occupation, and
coup may disrupt oil and gas production and
create shortages.
Historical crises
- 1970s Energy Crisis - Cause:
peaking of oil production in major industrial nations (Germany,
U.S., Canada, etc.) and embargos from other producers
- *
1973 oil crisis - Cause: an OPEC oil export embargo by many of the major Arab oil-producing states, in response to western
support of Israel
during the
Yom Kippur War
- * 1979 oil crisis - Cause: the
Iranian revolution
Emerging shortages
Crises that exist as of 2008 include:
- Oil price increases
since 2003 - Caused by continued global increases in petroleum
demand coupled with production stagnation,
the falling value of the U.S. dollar, and a myriad of
other secondary causes.
- 2008 Central Asia
energy crisis, caused by abnormally cold temperatures and low
water levels in an area dependent on hydroelectric power.
Despite
having significant hydrocarbon reserves, in February 2008 the
President of Pakistan
announced
plans to tackle energy shortages that were reaching crisis
stage. At the same time the South African President was
appeasing fears of a prolonged electricity crisis in South
Africa.
- South
African electrical crisis. The South African crisis, which may
last to 2012, lead to large price rises for platinum in February
2008 and reduced gold production.
- China
experienced
severe energy shortages towards the end of 2005 and again in early
2008. During the latter crisis they suffered severe damage
to power networks along with diesel and coal shortages.
Supplies
of electricity in Guangdong
province, the manufacturing hub of China, are
predicted to fall short by an estimated 10 GW.
- It has been predicted that in the coming years after 2009 that
the United Kingdom will suffer an energy crisis due to its
commitments to reduce coal fired power stations, its politician's
unwillingness to set up new nuclear power stations to replaces
those that will be de-commissioned in a few years (even though they
will not be running in time to stop a full blown crisis) and
unreliable sources and sources that are running out of oil and gas.
It is therefore predicted that the UK may have regular blackouts
like South Africa.
Social and economic effects
The
macroeconomic
implications of a
supply shock-induced
energy crisis are large, because energy is the resource used to
exploit all other resources. When
energy
markets fail, an energy shortage develops. Electricity
consumers may experience intentionally-engineered
rolling blackouts which are released during
periods of insufficient supply or unexpected
power outages, regardless of the cause.
Industrialized nations are dependent on oil, and efforts to
restrict the supply of oil would have an adverse effect on the
economies of oil producers. For the consumer, the price of
natural gas,
gasoline (petrol) and
diesel for cars and other vehicles rises. An
early response from stakeholders is the call for reports,
investigations and commissions into the price of fuels. There are
also movements towards the development of more
sustainable urban
infrastructure.
In the market, new technology and
energy efficiency measures become
desirable for consumers seeking to decrease transport costs.
Examples include:
Other
responses include the development of unconventional oil sources such as
synthetic fuel from places like the
Athabasca Oil
Sands
, more renewable energy
commercialization and use of alternative propulsion. There
may be a
Relocation trend
towards
local foods and possibly
microgeneration,
solar thermal collectors and other
green energy sources.
Tourism trends change and ownership of
gas-guzzlers vary, both because of
increases to fuel costs which are passed on to customers. Items
which were not so popular gain favour, such as
nuclear power plants and the
blanket sleeper, a garment to keep children
warm. Building
construction techniques
change to reduce heating costs, potentially through increased
insulation.
Crisis management
An electricity shortage is felt most by those who depend on
electricity for their heating,
cooking and
water supply. In these circumstances a
sustained energy crisis may become a
humanitarian crisis.
If an energy shortage is prolonged a
crisis management phase is enforced by
authorities.
Energy audits may be
conducted to monitor usage. Various curfews with the intention of
increasing
energy conservation
may be initiated to reduce consumption. To conserve power during
the Central Asia energy crisis, authorities in Tajikistan ordered
bars and cafes to operate by candlelight. Warnings issued that peak
demand power supply might not be sustained.
In the worst kind of energy crisis
energy rationing and fuel
rationing may be incurred.
Panic buying may beset outlets as awareness of
shortages spread. Facilities close down to save on heating oil; and
factories cut production and lay off workers. The risk of
stagflation increases.
Mitigation of an energy crisis
The
Hirsch report made clear that an
energy crisis is best averted by preparation. In 2008, solutions
such as the
Pickens Plan and the
satirical in origin
Paris
Hilton energy plan suggest the growing public consciousness of
the importance of mitigation.
Energy policy may be reformed leading to
greater energy intensity, for
example in Iran
with the
2007 Gas Rationing Plan
in Iran, Canada
and the
National Energy Program and
in the USA with the Energy Independence
and Security Act of 2007. In Europe the
oil phase-out in Sweden is an
initiative a government has taken to provide
energy security. Another mitigation measure
is the setup of a
cache of
secure fuel reserves
like the United States
Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in
case of
national emergency.
Chinese
energy policy includes specific targets within their 5 year
plans.
World energy usage
Andrew McKillop has been a proponent
of a contract and converge model or capping scheme, to mitigate
both emissions of
greenhouse gases
and a peak oil crisis. The imposition of a
carbon tax would have mitigating effects on an
oil crisis. The Oil Depletion Protocol has been developed by
Richard Heinberg to implement a
powerdown during a
peak oil
crisis. While many
sustainable
development and energy policy organisations have advocated
reforms to
energy development
from the 1970s, some cater to a specific crisis in energy supply
including
Energy-Questand the
International
Association for Energy Economics.
The Oil
Depletion Analysis Centre and the
Association for
the Study of Peak Oil and Gas examine the timing and likely
effects of peak oil.
Ecologist
William Rees
believes that
Due to a lack of political viability on the issue, government
mandated fuel prices hikes are unlikely and the unresolved
dilemma of fossil fuel dependence is becoming a
wicked problem. A global
soft energy path seems improbable, due to
the
rebound effect.
Conclusions that the world is heading towards an unprecedented
large and potentially devastating global energy crisis due to a
decline in the availability of cheap oil lead to calls for a
decreasing dependency on
fossil
fuel.
Other ideas have been proposed which concentrate on improved,
energy-efficient design and development of urban infrastructure in
developing nations.
Government funding for alternative energy is more likely to
increase during an energy crisis, so too are incentives for
oil exploration. For example funding
for research into
inertial
confinement fusion technology increased during 1970's.
Future and alternative energy sources
In response to the petroleum crisis, the principles of
green energy and
sustainable living movements gain
popularity. This has led to increasing interest in alternate
power/fuel research such as
fuel cell
technology,
liquid nitrogen
economy,
hydrogen fuel,
methanol,
biodiesel,
Karrick
process,
solar energy,
geothermal energy,
tidal energy,
wave
power, and
wind energy, and
fusion power. To date, only
hydroelectricity and
nuclear power have been significant
alternatives to fossil fuel.
Hydrogen gas is currently produced at a net energy loss from
natural gas, which is also experiencing declining production in
North America and elsewhere. When not produced from natural gas,
hydrogen still needs another source of energy to create it, also at
a loss during the process. This has led to hydrogen being regarded
as a 'carrier' of energy, like electricity, rather than a 'source'.
The unproven
dehydrogenating process
has also been suggested for the use water as an energy
source.
Efficiency mechanisms such as
Negawatt
power can encourage significantly more effective use of current
generating capacity. It is a term used to describe the trading of
increased efficiency, using consumption efficiency to increase
available market supply rather than by increasing plant generation
capacity. As such, it is a
demand-side
as opposed to a
supply-side
measure.
Predictions
Although
technology has made oil extraction more efficient, the world is
having to struggle to provide oil by using increasingly costly and
less productive methods such as deep sea drilling, and developing
environmentally sensitive areas such as the Arctic
National Wildlife Refuge
.
The world's population continues to grow at a quarter of a million
people per day, increasing the consumption of energy.
Although far less
from people in developing countries, especially USA, the per capita
energy consumption of China, India
and other
developing nations continues to increase
as the people living in these countries adopt more energy intensive
lifestyles. At present a small part of the world's population consumes a large part of
its resources, with the United States
and its population of 300 million people consuming
far more oil than China with its population of 1.3 billion
people.
William Catton has emphasised the
link between population size and energy supply, concluding
that
David Pimentel professor of ecology and
agriculture at Cornell
University
, has called for massive reduction in world
populations in order to avoid a permanent global energy
crisis. The implication is that cheap oil has created a
human
overshoot beyond Earth's
carrying capacity which inevitably
lead to an energy crisis.
David Price
postulates that population growth occurs when a higher quality form
of energy is commercialised.
For nearly 60 years the US dependence
on imported oil has grown significantly.
Matthew Simmons and
Julian Darley amongst others, have examined
the economic effects of an energy crisis. Historian, and
sociologist
Franz Schurmann links an
energy crisis with a deflating American dollar. He has stated
that
According to
Christopher Falvin,
geopolitical factors has resulted in
current energy system, based on fossil fuels, to be a
risk management issue that undermines global
security. Considering the significant source of greenhouse gas
emissions accumulating in the atmosphere, fossil fuel energy is
being viewed as increasingly
socially irresponsible.
Joseph Tainter is an expert on
societal collapse and energy supply who
draws attention to the
complexity of
modern society and our ability to
problem solve the wider issue of
environmental degradation.
National population suffering from
undernourishment as percentage.
Agriculture
According to
Kenneth S. Deffeyes agricultural production is heavily
dependent on
hydrocarbons for energy, in
the form of petroleum to power machinery and transport goods to
market. Another important input is
fertilizer usage that is highly dependent on
natural gas for its production and sometimes for fueled
irrigation. Between the late 1940s and early
1980s, as the
Green Revolution
transformed agriculture around the globe, world grain production
increased by 250%. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided
almost always by fossil fuels. The 20th century
population explosion is strongly correlated
with the discovery and extraction of hydrocarbons.
The decision to develop a biofuel industry through subsidies and
tariffs in the USA has increased food costs globally.
Lester R. Brown states that by converting grains into
fuel for cars
Catastrophe
Some experts including
Howard Odum
and
David Holmgren have used the term
energy descent to describe a
post-peak oil period of transition. Ron Swenson has described a
looming peak oil crisis as a calamity unparalleled in human
history. The peaking of world hydrocarbon production, known as
peak oil may test
Malthus critics. Michael C. Ruppert has discussed
energy crises in relation to the
petrodollar,
oil
imperialism and
police
states.
Cultural references
Fictional scenarios have been explored in;
See also
References
- Kuwait's biggest field starts to run out of oil
- High Oil Prices Boost Energy Efficiency.
January 30, 2008 Planet Ark.
Further reading
External links
.
has had energy shortages for many
years.
has
experienced a shortage of energy supplies for many years due to
financial mismanagement.
Wikis
Quiz
Map
Search