The modern concept of
geoengineering is usually
taken to mean proposals to deliberately manipulate the
Earth's
climate to counteract
the effects of
global warming from
greenhouse gas emissions.
The
National Academy of Sciences
defined geoengineering as "options that would
involve large-scale engineering of our environment in order to
combat or counteract the effects of changes in atmospheric
chemistry."
Some geoengineering techniques are based on
carbon sequestration. These seek to
reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere directly. These include
direct methods (e.g.
carbon
dioxide air capture) and indirect methods (e.g.
ocean iron fertilization). These
techniques can be regarded as
mitigation of global warming.
Alternatively,
solar
radiation management techniques (e.g.
stratospheric
sulfur aerosols) do not reduce greenhouse gas concentrations,
and can only address the warming effects of carbon dioxide and
other gases; they cannot address problems such as
ocean acidification, which are expected
as a result of rising
carbon dioxide
levels.Examples of proposed geoengineering techniques include the
production of
stratospheric
sulfur aerosols, which was suggested by
Paul Crutzen, and
cloud reflectivity
enhancement. Most techniques have at least some side
effects.
To date, no large-scale geoengineering projects have been
undertaken. Some limited
tree planting
and
cool roof projects are already
underway, and ocean
iron
fertilization is at an advanced stage of research, with
small-scale research trials and global modelling having been
completed. Some commentators have suggested that consideration of
geoengineering presents a
moral hazard
because it threatens to reduce the political and popular pressure
for emissions reduction. Typically, the scientists and engineers
proposing geoengineering strategies do not suggest that they are an
alternative to emissions control, but rather an accompanying
strategy. Reviews of geoengineering techniques have emphasised that
they are not substitutes for emission controls and have identified
potentially stronger and weaker schemes.
Definition
Geoengineering is the idea of applying
planetary engineering to Earth.
Geoengineering would involve the deliberate modification of
Earth's
environment on a large scale "to suit
human needs and promote habitability". Typically, the term is used
to describe proposals to counter the effects of human-induced
climate change. However, others
define it more narrowly as nature-integrated engineering projects.
The term
geoengineering is distinct from environmental
damage and accidental anthropogenic climate change, which are
side-effects of human activity, rather than an intended
consequence. The global recovery of hydrocarbons from the
subsurface using integrated geoscience and engineering technology
has been termed 'petroleum geoengineering' as an activity with
global impact.. Definitions of the term are not universally
accepted.
Background
The field is currently experiencing a surge of interest as it has
now become broadly accepted that
global
warming is both real and dangerous. A degree of urgency in
efforts to research and implement potential solutions is based on
the historic failure to control emissions, and the possibility that
tipping points in the
Earth's
climate system are close at hand. In
particular the
Arctic shrinkage is
causing accelerated regional warming. Rapid action with
geoengineering may be necessary. Other tipping points might be
avoided by reducing the impact of global warming in order to stifle
positive feedback and prevent the resulting accelerated climate
change.
The study of geoengineering is a notably complex discipline, as it
requires the collation of knowledge in:
Several notable organisations have recently, or are soon to,
investigate geoengineering with a view to evaluating its potential.
Notably,
NASA
, the Royal Society,
the Institute of
Mechanical Engineers, and the UK Parliament
, have all held inquiries or contests aimed at
discovering and evaluating current knowledge of the
subject.
The major environmental organisations such as
Friends of the Earth and
Greenpeace have typically been reluctant to
endorse geoengineering. Some have argued that any public support
for geoengineering may weaken the fragile political consensus to
reduce
greenhouse gas
emissions.
Proposed projects
Several geoengineering projects have been proposed. The
documentaries
Five ways
to save the world and
La temperature grimpe
describe many of the most notable projects. IPCC documents also
detail several proposed projects.
Solar radiation management
Solar radiation management (SRM) projects seek to reduce the amount
of sunlight hitting the Earth and thus counteract global warming.
They do not reduce
greenhouse gas
concentrations in the
atmosphere, and
thus do not address problems such as
ocean acidification caused by these
gases. The phenomenon of
global
dimming is widely-known, and is not necessarily a
geoengineering technique, occurring naturally as a result of
volcanoes and major
forest fires. However, its deliberate
manipulation is a tool of the geoengineer.
Solar radiation management projects often have the advantage of
speed. Whilst
Greenhouse gas
remediation offers a comprehensive possible solution to climate
change, it does not give instant results; for that, solar radiation
management is required.
Techniques that fall into this category include:
Greenhouse gas remediation
Greenhouse gas remediation projects seek to remove greenhouse gases
from the atmosphere, and thus tackle the root cause of global
warming. They either directly remove greenhouse gases, or
alternatively seek to influence natural processes to remove
greenhouse gases indirectly. These projects offer a comprehensive
solution to the problem of excess greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, but they will take many years to work fully. Many
projects overlap with
carbon
capture and storage and
carbon
sequestration projects, and may not be considered to be
geoengineering by all commentators. Techniques in this category
include:
Arctic geoengineering
Various hydrological geoengineering projects aim to change the
climate without directly or indirectly removing greenhouse gases,
or directly influencing
solar
radiation. These principally act by limiting
Arctic sea ice loss. Keeping the Arctic ice
is seen by many commentators as vital, due to its role in the
planet's
albedo and in keeping
methane, which is an important greenhouse gas,
locked up in
permafrost.
Heat transport
The use of vertical ocean pipes to mix cooler deep water and warmer
surface water has been proposed. This technology has also been
suggested for the disruption of
hurricanes by
Bill
Gates and others in a recent patent application.
Modification of hurricanes may be considered weather modification rather than geoengineering, depending on the definition used.
Justification
The use of geoengineering to tackle
climate change is advocated for several
specific reasons:
Tipping points and positive feedback

Climate change during the last 65
million years.
The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum is labelled PETM.
It is argued that
climate change has
already, or is soon to, pass one or more
tipping point where aspects of
the climate system may 'tip' from one stable state to another
stable state, much like a glass tipping over.
When the new stable
state is reached, it may trigger or accelerate warming positive feedback effects, such as the
collapse of Arctic sea ice triggering the release of methane from permafrost in
Siberia
. The "nightmare scenario" is that a
domino effect will occur, with successive
parts of the climate system tipping one after the other, with each
change being caused by the previous one and causing the next one.
Such a situation will lead to spiralling and potentially sudden
climate change.
The precise identity of such "tipping points" is not clear, with
scientists taking differing views on whether specific systems are
capable of "tipping" and the point at which this "tipping" will
occur. An example of a previous tipping point is that which
preceded the rapid warming leading up to the
Paleocene–Eocene
Thermal Maximum. Once the tipping point is reached, cuts in
greenhouse gas emissions will not be able to reverse the change.
Depending on the precise nature of the individual system that
"tips",
positive feedbacks may
occur, with warming causing more warming, which causes yet more
warming—a runaway global warming event. Therefore, some
commentators suggest that more conservative use of resources is not
enough to
mitigate global
warming. Even if all greenhouse emissions suddenly came to a
complete halt, the world would continue to be affected for
centuries, and further warming may occur due to positive feedback.
Conservation of resources and reduction of greenhouse emissions,
used in conjunction with geoengineering, are therefore considered a
viable option. Geoengineering offers the hope of temporarily
reversing some aspects of climate change and allowing the natural
climate to be substantially preserved whilst greenhouse gas
emissions are brought under control and removed from the
atmosphere by natural or artificial
processes.
Precautionary principle
Bearing in mind the threats from climate change, it can be argued
that attempting geoengineering represents a lesser risk than not
pursuing such strategies. While the understanding of geoengineering
techniques is limited, the risks of global warming are at least
partially understood, and are severe.
Costs
Some geoengineering techniques, such as the use of pale-coloured
materials for roofing and paving, can be achieved at little or no
cost, and may even offer a financial payback. It is therefore
possible to argue that certain implementations of such techniques
are preferable to cutting carbon emissions on cost grounds
alone.
Political viability
It has been argued that regardless of the economic, scientific and
technical aspects, the difficulty of achieving concerted political
action on climate change requires other approaches. Those arguing
political expediency say the difficulty of achieving meaningful
emissions cuts and the effective failure of the
Kyoto Protocol demonstrate the practical
difficulties of achieving carbon dioxide
emissions reduction by the agreement of
the
international community.
However, others point to support for geoengineering proposals among
think tanks with a history of climate change skepticism and
opposition to emissions reductions as evidence that the prospect of
geoengineering is itself already politicized and being promoted as
part of an argument against the need for (and viability of)
emissions reductions; that, rather than geoengineering being a
solution to the difficulties of emissions reductions, the prospect
of geoengineering is being used as part of an argument to stall
emissions reductions in the first place.
Risks and criticisms
Various criticisms have been made of geoengineering. However, the
existence of criticism should not be taken to mean that those
raising it are opposed to a particular technique, but rather that
they are pointing out a potential disadvantage or downside which
may need to be monitored or controlled, or may alternatively weigh
against a particular technique. Some commentators appear
fundamentally opposed, however. Individuals such as
Raymond Pierrehumbert have called for
a moratorium on geoengineering techniques.
Ineffectiveness
The effectiveness of the schemes proposed may fall short of
predictions. In the example of ocean
iron fertilization, for example, the
amount of carbon dioxide removed from the
atmosphere may be much lower than predicted, as
carbon taken up by
plankton may be released
back into the atmosphere from dead plankton, rather than being
carried to the bottom of the sea and sequestered.
Incomplete solution to CO2 emissions
Techniques that do not remove
greenhouse gases from the
atmosphere may control
global warming, but do not reduce other
effects from these gases, such as
ocean acidification. Whilst not an
argument against geoengineering
per se, this is an
argument against reliance on geoengineering to the exclusion of
greenhouse gas reduction.
Control and predictability problems
The full effects of various geoengineering schemes are not well
understood. Matthews et al compared geoengineering to a number of
previous environmental interventions and concluded that "Given our
current level of understanding of the climate system, it is likely
that the result of at least some geoengineering efforts would
follow previous ecological examples where increased human
intervention has led to an overall increase in negative
environmental consequences."
Performance of the systems may become ineffective, unpredictable or
unstable as a result of external events, such as
volcanic eruptions,
phytoplankton blooms,
El Niño,
solar
flares, etc., potentially leading to profound and unpredictable
disruption to the climate system.
It may be difficult to predict the effectiveness of projects, with
models of techniques giving widely varying results. In the
instances of systems which involve
tipping
points, this may result in irreversible effects.
Climate modelling is far from an exact
science even when applied to comparatively well-understood natural
climate systems, and it is made more complex by the need to
understand novel and unnatural processes which by definition lack
relevant observation data.
Side effects
The techniques themselves may cause significant foreseen or
unforeseen harm. For example, the use of reflective
balloons may result in significant
litter, which may be harmful to
wildlife.
Ozone depletion is a risk of some
geoengineering techniques, notably those involving
sulfur delivery into the
stratosphere.
The active nature of geoengineering may in some cases create a
clear division between winners and losers. Most of the proposed
interventions are regional, such as albedo modification in the
Arctic. Necessarily, such interventions
compel those in the affected regions to tolerate the effects of
geoengineering for the supposed benefit of the global
climate.
There may be unintended climatic consequences, such as changes to
the
hydrological cycle including
droughts or
floods,
caused by the geoengineering techniques, but possibly not predicted
by the
models used to plan them.
Such effects may be cumulative or
chaotic in nature, making prediction and
control very difficult.
Unreliable systems
The performance of the interventions may be inconsistent due to
mechanical failure, non-availability of consumables or funding
problems.
The geoengineering techniques would, in many instances, be
vulnerable to being switched off or deliberately destroyed. As
examples, cloud making ships could be switched off or sunk and
space mirrors could be tilted to make them useless. Anyone capable
of exerting such power may seek to abuse it for commercial gain,
military advantage or simple terrorism.
Weaponisation
Weaponisation of geoengineering techniques is generally prohibited
by the
Environmental Modification
Convention. However, this does not eliminate the risk.
Geoengineering techniques may be used as a weapon of mass
destruction, creating droughts or famines designed to destroy or
disable an enemy. They could also be used simply to make
battlefield conditions more favourable to one side or the other in
a war (such as in
Operation
Popeye). For example,
laser-guided
weapons are confounded by clouds, and thus switching off cloud
machines would favour forces using such weapons, and switching them
on would favour ground forces defending against them.
Whilst laws or treaties may prevent the manipulation of the climate
as a weapon of war, it could be argued that geoengineering is
itself a manipulation, and thus destroying or disabling the
geoengineering structures is not prohibited. A new legal framework
may be necessary in the event that large-scale geoengineering
becomes established.
Despite the capacity of the
military-industrial complex to
investigate and deploy geoengineering, their involvement has proved
controversial.
Carnegie’s
Ken Caldeira said, "It will make it harder to
achieve broad consensus on developing and governing these
technologies if there is suspicion that gaining military advantage
is an underlying motivation for its development.."
Effect on sunlight, sky and clouds
Managing solar radiation using aerosols or cloud cover will change
the ratio between direct and indirect solar radiation. This may
affect plant life and
solar energy.
There will be a significant effect on the appearance of the
sky from
aerosol
projects, notably a hazing of blue skies and a change in the
appearance of
sunsets. Aerosols may affect
the formation of clouds, especially
cirrus
clouds.
Moral hazard
The existence of such techniques may reduce the political and
social impetus to reduce carbon emissions.
Other criticism comes from those who see geoengineering projects as
reacting to the symptoms of global warming rather than addressing
the real causes of climate change. Because geoengineering is a form
of controlling the risks associated with global warming, it leads
to a
moral hazard problem. The problem
is that knowledge that geoengineering is possible could lead to
climate impacts seeming less fearsome, which could in turn lead to
a weaker commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Lack of global control
Geoengineering opens up various political and economic issues.
David Keith argues that the cost of geoengineering the Earth is
within the realm of small countries, large corporations, or even
very wealthy individuals. Steve Rayner agrees that not all
geoengineering possibilities are expensive, and that some, such as
ocean iron fertilisation, are within the reach of very wealthy
individuals, calling them a "Greenfinger" (after the fictional
Goldfinger). David Victor suggests that
geoengineering is within the reach of any individual who has a
small fraction of the bank account of
Bill
Gates, who takes it upon him or her self to be the
"self-appointed protector of the planet".
This effectively eliminates any control over who gets to decide
when to cool the Earth and how often this should be done. The
resulting power would be enormous, and could not necessarily be
readily controlled by legal, political or regulatory systems. These
legal and regulatory systems may themselves be far less powerful
than the geoengineers controlling the climate become.
It is quite feasible for
carbon
offsetting firms to set up unregulated, unsupervised and
dangerous geoengineering projects. This may be done in order to
sell
carbon credits to individuals
and firms.
Geoengineering schemes have the potential to cause significant
environmental damage, and may even end up releasing further
greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere. Opposition to some early schemes has
been intense, with respected environmental groups campaigning
against them.
Rapid warming if stopped
If
solar radiation
management were to abruptly stop, the climate would rapidly
warm. This would cause a sudden rise in global temperatures towards
levels which would have existed without the use of the
geoengineering technique. The rapid rise in temperature may lead to
more severe consequences than a gradual rise of the same
magnitude.
Implementation issues
There is no general consensus that geoengineering is safe,
appropriate or effective, for the reasons listed above. The issue
of
moral hazard means that many
environmental groups and campaigners are reluctant to advocate
geoengineering for fear of reducing the imperative to cut
greenhouse gas emissions. Other
environmentalists see calls for geoengineering as part of an
explicit strategy to delay emissions reductions on the part of
those with connections to coal and oil industries.
All proposed geoengineering techniques require implementation on a
relatively large scale, in order to make a significant difference
to the Earth's climate. The least costly schemes are budgeted at a
cost of millions, with many more complex schemes such as
space sunshade costing far more.
Many techniques, again such as space sunshade, require a complex
technical development process before they are ready to be
implemented. There is no clear institutional mechanism for handling
this
research and
development process. As a result, many promising techniques do
not have the engineering development or experimental evidence to
determine their feasibility or efficacy at present.
Once a technique has been developed and tested, its implementation
is still likely to be difficult. Climate change is by nature a
global problem, and therefore no one institution, company or
government is responsible for it. The substantial costs of most
geoengineering techniques therefore cannot currently be
apportioned. Roll-out of such technologies is therefore likely to
be delayed until these issues can be resolved. A notable exception
is the use of small
albedo manipulation
projects, known as
cool roof, in which the colour of
roofing or paving surfaces can be manipulated to reflect solar
radiation back into space. These can be, and are, implemented by
individuals, companies and governments without controversy.
Due to the radical changes caused by geoengineering interventions,
legal issues are also an impediment to implementation. The changes
resulting from geoengineering necessarily benefit some people and
disadvantage others. There may therefore be legal challenges to the
implementation of geoengineering techniques by those adversely
affected by them.
Evaluation of geoengineering
Few field experiments in geoengineering have been carried out. Most
of what is known about the suggested techniques is based on
small-scale trials and from simulations of
global climate models and other
computer modelling techniques.
Some geoengineering schemes employ methods that have analogues in
natural phenomena such as
stratospheric sulfur aerosols
and
cloud condensation
nuclei.
As such, studies about the efficacy of these
schemes can draw on information already available from other
research, such as that following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo
. However, comparative evaluation of the
relative merits of each technology is complicated, especially given
modelling uncertainties and the early stage of engineering
development of many geoengineering schemes.
In a 2009 review study, Lenton and Vaughan evaluated a range of
geoengineering schemes from those that sequester from the
atmosphere and decrease
longwave
radiation trapping, to those that decrease the Earth's receipt
of
shortwave radiation. In order
to permit a comparison of disparate techniques, they used a common
evaluation for each scheme based on its effect on net radiative
forcing. As such, the review examined the scientific plausibility
of schemes rather than the practical considerations such as
engineering feasibility or economic cost. Lenton and Vaughan found
that "[air] capture and storage shows the greatest potential,
combined with afforestation, reforestation and bio-char
production", and noted that "other suggestions that have received
considerable media attention, in particular “ocean pipes” appear to
be ineffective". They concluded that "[climate] geoengineering is
best considered as a potential complement to the mitigation of
emissions, rather than as an alternative to it".
Reports
into geoengineering have also been published in the United Kingdom
by the Institution of Mechanical
Engineers and the Royal
Society. The IMechE report examined a small subset of
proposed schemes (air capture, urban albedo and algal-based capture
schemes), and its main conclusions were that geoengineering should
be researched and trialled at the small scale alongside a wider
decarbonisation of the
economy.
The Royal Society review examined a wide range of geoengineering
schemes and evaluated them in terms of effectiveness,
affordability, timeliness and safety (assigning
qualitative estimates in each assessment).
Similarly to Lenton and Vaughan, the report divided schemes into
"carbon dioxide removal" (CDR) and "solar radiation management"
(SRM) approaches that respectively address longwave and shortwave
radiation. The key recommendations of the report were that "Parties
to the
UNFCCC should make increased efforts
towards mitigating and adapting to climate change, and in
particular to agreeing to global emissions reductions", and that
"[nothing] now known about geoengineering options gives any reason
to diminish these efforts". Nonetheless, the report also
recommended that "research and development of geoengineering
options should be undertaken to investigate whether low risk
methods can be made available if it becomes necessary to reduce the
rate of warming this century".
See also
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External links