World map of the Global Peace Index 2008.
Countries appearing more green are ranked as more peaceful,
countries appearing more red are ranked as less peaceful.
Change of number of countries in each GPI class from
2007-2009.
The
Global Peace Index (GPI) is an attempt to
measure the relative position of nations’ and regions’
peacefulness. It is maintained by the Institute for Economics and
Peace and developed in consultation with an international panel of
peace experts from peace institutes and
think
tanks with data collected and analysed by the
Economist Intelligence Unit. The
list was launched first in May 2007 and then in May 2008 and
recently on 2 June 2009 and is claimed to be the first study to
rank countries around the world according to their peacefulness.
The study is the brainchild of Australian entrepreneur
Steve Killelea and is endorsed by individuals
such as
Kofi Annan, the
Dalai Lama, archbishop
Desmond Tutu, former President
Martti Ahtisaari,
Muhammad Yunus, economist
Jeffrey Sachs, former president of Ireland
Mary Robinson and former US president
Jimmy Carter. Factors examined by the
authors include internal factors such as levels of violence and
crime within the country and factors in a country's external
relations such as
military
expenditure and wars.
Methodology
The research team was headed by
The Economist Intelligence
Unit in conjunction with academics and experts in the field of
peace. They measured countries' peacefulness based on wide range of
indicators, 24 in all. A table of the indicators is below.
In the
table, UCDP stands for the Uppsala Conflict Data Program maintained
by the University of
Uppsala
in Sweden
, EIU for The
Economist Intelligence Unit, UNSCT for the United Nations Survey of Criminal Trends and
Operations of Criminal Justice Systems, ICPS is the International
Center for Prison Studies at King's College London
, IISS for the International
Institute for Strategic Studies publication The Military
Balance 2007, SIPRI for the Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute Arms Transfers Database,
and BICC for the Bonn International
Center for Conversion.
#
|
Indicator
|
Source
|
Year(s)
|
Coding
|
| 1 |
Number of external and internal wars fought |
UCDP |
2000 to 2005 |
Total number |
| 2 |
Estimated deaths due to external wars |
UCDP |
2004 to 2005 |
Total number |
| 3 |
Estimated deaths due to internal wars |
UCDP |
2004 to 2005 |
Total number |
| 4 |
Level of organized internal conflict |
EIU |
2007 |
Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5 |
| 5 |
Relations with neighbouring countries |
EIU |
2007 |
Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5 |
| 6 |
Level of distrust in other citizens |
EIU |
2007 |
Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5 |
| 7 |
Number of displaced persons as percentage of population |
World Bank |
2003 |
Refugee population by percentage of the origin country's
population |
| 8 |
Political instability |
EIU |
2007 |
Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5 |
| 9 |
Level of respect for human rights (political terror scale) |
Amnesty International |
2005 |
Qualitative measure |
| 10 |
Potential for terrorist acts |
EIU |
2007 |
Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5 |
| 11 |
Number of homicides |
UNSCT |
2004 and 2002 |
Intentional homicides, including infanticide, per 100,000
people |
| 12 |
Level of violent crime |
EIU |
2007 |
Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5 |
| 13 |
Likelihood of violent demonstrations |
EIU |
2007 |
Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5 |
| 14 |
Number of jailed persons |
ICPS |
2006 |
Persons incarcerated per 100,000 people |
| 15 |
Number of police and security officers |
UNSCT |
2002 and 2000 |
Civil security officers per 100,000 people |
| 16 |
Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP |
IISS |
2004 |
Cash outlays for armed forces, as a percentage of GDP |
| 17 |
Number of armed services personnel |
IISS |
2004 |
Full-time military personnel per 100,000 people |
| 18 |
Imports of major conventional weapons |
SIPRI |
2001 to 2005 |
Imports of major conventional weapons per 100,000 people |
| 19 |
Exports of major conventional weapons |
SIPRI |
2001 to 2005 |
Exports of major conventional weapons per 100,000 people |
| 20 |
United Nations deployments |
IISS |
2006 to 2007 |
Total number |
| 21 |
Non-United Nations deployments |
IISS |
2006 to 2007 |
Total number |
| 22 |
Number of heavy weapons |
BICC |
2003 |
Weapons per 100,000 people |
| 23 |
Ease of access to small arms and light weapons |
EIU |
2007 |
Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5 |
| 24 |
Military capability or sophistication |
EIU |
2007 |
Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5 |
Indicators not already ranked on a 1 to 5 scale were converted by
using the following formula: x=(x-Min(x))/(Max(x)-Min(x)) where
Max(x) and Min(x) are the highest and lowest values for that
indicator of the countries ranked in the index. The 0 to 1 scores
that resulted were then converted to the 1 to 5 scale. Individual
indicators were then weighted according to the research team's
judgment of their importance. The scores were then tabulated into
two weighted sub-indices: internal peace, weighted at 60% of a
country's final score, and external peace, weighted at 40% of a
country's final score.
The main findings of the Global Peace Index are:
- Peace correlated to indicators such as income, schooling and
the level of regional integration (source and numerical
coefficient?)
- Peaceful countries often shared high levels of transparency of
government and low corruption
- Small, stable countries which are part of regional blocks are
most likely to get a higher ranking.
Statistical analysis was applied to discover more specific drivers
of peace. Specifically, the research team looked for indicators
that were included and excluded from the index that had high levels
of correlation with the overall score and rank of countries. Among
the statistically significant indicators that were not used in the
analysis were the functionality of a country's government, regional
integration, hostility to foreigners, importance of religion in
national life, and GDP per capita.
Notably
absent from the 2007 study are Belarus
, Iceland
, many
African nations, Mongolia
, North Korea
and Afghanistan
. They were not included because reliable
data for the 24 indicators was not available.
Criticism and response to criticism
The Economist, in publishing
the index, admitted that, "the index will run into some flak."
Specifically, according to
The Economist, the weighting of
military expenditure "may seem to give heart to freeloaders:
countries that enjoy peace precisely because others (often the USA)
care for their defense." The true utility of the index may lie not
in its specific rankings of countries now, but in how those
rankings change over time, thus tracking when and how countries
become more or less peaceful.
The Peace Index has been criticised for not including indicators
specifically relating to violence against women and children.
Riane Eisler, writing in the
Christian Science Monitor, argued
that, "to put it mildly, this blind spot makes the index very
inaccurate."
She mentions a number of specific cases,
including Egypt
, where she
claims 90% of women are subject to genital mutilation and China
, where, she
says, "female infanticide is still a problem," , according to a
2000 UNICEF study."
The Index has received endorsements from a number of major
international figures, including the former Secretary-General of
the United Nations
Kofi Annan, former
President of Finland and most recent Nobel Peace Prize laureate
Martti Ahtisaari, the
Dalai Lama, archbishop
Desmond Tutu,
Muhammad Yunus and former United States
President
Jimmy Carter. Steve Killelea,
the Australian philanthropist who conceived the idea of the Index,
argues that the Index "is a wake-up call for leaders around the
globe.".
Global Peace Index rankings
Nations considered more peaceful have lower index scores. Countries
with rankings in green are in the most peaceful 20% for that year;
those in red are in the bottom 20%.
- Note: There have been changes to the
methodology for the 2009 data.
See also
References
- All information in indicator table from
- In this case, a conflict is defined as, "a contested
incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the
use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is
the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related
deaths in a year."
- Excludes militia and national guard forces.
- This includes, "cash outlays of central or federal government
to meet the costs of national armed forces—including strategic,
land, naval, air, command, administration and support forces as
well as paramilitary forces, customs forces and border guards if
these are trained and equipped as a military force."
- This includes transfers, purchases, or gifts of aircraft,
armoured vehicles, artillery, radar systems, missiles, ships,
engines
- Weapons defined in four categories: armoured vehicles,
artillery, combat aircraft, major fighting ships.
- First Global Peace Index Ranks 121 Countries, PP
Newswire
- All information in the table of rankings from: * * Both are
linked from:
- Global Peace Index - Methodology and Data
Sources
External links
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