A snap general election was
held in Italy
on 13 April and 14 April
2008. The election came after
President Giorgio Napolitano dissolved
parliament on
6
February 2008 following the
defeat of the government of
Prime
Minister Romano Prodi in a January
2008
Senate vote, and the
unsuccessful tentative appointment of
Franco Marini with the aim to change the
current electoral law. Under Italian law, elections must be held
within 70 days of the dissolution. The voting determined the leader
of Italy's 62nd government since the end of
World War II.
The coalition led by ex-Prime Minister
Silvio Berlusconi from the
People of Freedom party defeated
that of former Rome
Mayor
Walter Veltroni of the Democratic Party.
Overview of results
The new
People of Freedom party
(merging
Forza Italia and the
National Alliance) achieved the
largest share of the vote for a single party at about 37.5%. The
new
Democratic Party
(formerly
The Olive
Tree coalition) achieved the second-largest share for a single
party, at about 33%. The main center-right coalition of the PoF and
the
Northern League achieved about 47% of
the vote, and the main center-left coalition of the Democratic
Party and
Italy of Values achieved
about 38%.
The Italian
party-list representation
system of 2005 automatically boosts the largest coalition's
representation in the lower house of parliament to 340 seats (about
54%), and a similar super-assignment system at the regional level
succeeded in providing the center-right with 174 seats (about 55%)
in the Senate. The center-left obtained 239 seats in the lower
house and 130 seats in the Senate. The scale of the center-right's
majority in the Senate came as a great surprise in contrast to
predictions of a tight or hung chamber. Opponents of the 2005
proportional representation law had claimed it would inherently
produce unworkably small majorities in the Senate, and the
previously strident calls for a new electoral law will now likely
be deferred. In the absence of a defection by the Northern League
(such as brought down the first Berlusconi government in 1994), the
current parliament is likely to be stable and last its entire five
year mandate.
With the elimination of the
The Left - The Rainbow from
the legislature, and the absorption of the other successor parties
to the
Italian Communist
Party into the Democratic Party, this will be the first Italian
legislature since
World War II to
contain no self-identified Communists. This is a remarkable
transformation in a country which as recently as the 1980s had the
largest non-ruling Communist Party in Europe. Since the Italian
Greens chose to align themselves with the far left, they have also
been eliminated from the legislature, making Italy one of the few
European countries where the Greens have no representation.
Analysis of party performances
For
Silvio Berlusconi, leader of
the
People of Freedom party, the
2008 elections were a personal triumph after the narrow win by the
center-left and left in the 2006 elections. He succeeded in merging
his
Forza Italia party and the
National Alliance into a unified
party. But he gained only about 2% over the showing of the two
parties in the 2006 elections, and is dependent on the
Northern League for his majorities in both houses
of parliament.
For the
Democratic Party,
the strategy of this election was to merge the left-of-center into
a single party.
Walter Veltroni
refused to form a coalition with the far left parties in the
interest of longer term party development. His strategy was partly
successful — he eliminated competition from the far left — but
despite this the new party's share of the vote improved only
slightly from its predecessor's performance in the 2006 election,
gaining about 2%.
The
Northern League (with its small
Southern Italian ally the
Movement
for Autonomy) achieved the greatest gains in the election,
doubling its share of the vote from about 4.5% to 9%. People of
Freedom is dependent on the Northern League for its majority. This
will give the League leverage within the centre-right coalition to
advance its agenda of greater regional autonomy in Italy, and its
opposition to mass immigration and any electoral changes designed
to further weaken small parties.
The new
Union of the
Centre party (formed primarily from the
Union of Christian and
Centre Democrats) failed to achieve any breakthrough as a
centrist third force, achieving about 5.5% of the vote, similar to
its predecessors' 2006 performance.
The significant losers in the election were the far left parties,
which fell from about 10% in total in the last election to about 5%
in total, and lacking a unified coalition failed to obtain any
seats in either house. The largest far left grouping,
The Left - The Rainbow,
obtained only about 3% of the vote, below the 4% threshold required
for seats in the Chamber of Deputies. Its leader
Fausto Bertinotti stepped down immediately
after the election.
A new attempt at unification on the far right,
The Right - Tricolor Flame
party, achieved some success at over 2% of the vote, but also
failed to reach the 4% threshold. The far right faction of
Alessandra Mussolini had joined the
People of Freedom rather than The Right.
Despite the return to party-list representation in the
much-criticized 2005 election law, Italy took a further step in the
2008 elections toward a reduction of parties in parliament. But the
strength of the Northern League, the continuing relevance of the
Union of the Centre for some former
Christian Democrats,
the failure of the Democratic Party to absorb Italy of Values, and
the possibility of a return to parliament by the far left in a
future general leftward electoral shift, leave the question open of
whether Italy will end up with the American-style two-party system
that the main parties on the center-left and center-right appear to
hope for.
After the results were in, Pier Ferdinando Casini, leader of the
Center Union described the developing system as not the American
model, but the German
model
, where despite two large blocks, several smaller
parties remain significant and sometimes essential to
coalitions.
Electoral system
Italians voted in this election with
the same electoral
system used in
2006, based on
party-list representation. This electoral systems
allow parties to formally define coalitions. The coalition with a
plurality of votes nationwide
then obtains an absolute majority of seats in the Chamber of
Deputies. This is not in Senate's case, as absolute majorities of
seats are awarded regionally.
Parties
Major competitors in the election were expected to be
Silvio Berlusconi, as leader of the
centre-right opposition coalition, and
Walter Veltroni, leader of the
Democratic Party. Berlusconi's
right coalition was leading by a significant margin in opinion
polls. The 71-year-old Berlusconi, who was twice prime
minister—from May 1994 to January 1995 and again from May 2001 to
May 2006—is not considered too old for the job although he had
bypass surgery since leaving office.
Veltroni's
campaign has been compared to Barack Obama's
presidential run in the United States
. The most apparent of the similarities is
his slogan, "Si può fare" (literally: "it can be done").
Following the calling of the election, Veltroni stated his party
will not make any alliance in either Chamber, choosing instead to
run alone with its own platform, and challenged Berlusconi to do
likewise with his
Forza Italia party.
The main four left-wing parties not part of the PD decided to
contest the election together under the banner of
The Left – The Rainbow. On
February 8, Berlusconi announced
Forza Italia and
Gianfranco Fini's
National Alliance will run
together under the common symbol of the
People of Freedom party, being regionally
allied with
Lega Nord.
On
February 13, Veltroni announced to
have reached an agreement with the
Italy
of Values, led by
Antonio Di
Pietro, which agreed for an electoral alliance with the
Democratic Party, accepting also to join the Democratic Party
parliamentary groups after the election. On
February 21 the
Italian Radicals announced an agreement
with the Democratic Party, accepting to present themselves in list
with the latter, under the agreement they will have nine MPs
elected in the Parliament, and appointment of
Emma Bonino as Minister in case of
victory.
Though Berlusconi and Veltroni were in opposite parties, they
allegedly represent such similar policies that they were dubbed
"Veltrusconi". Both candidates supported big
tax
cuts and generous spending programs.
Union of
Christian and Centre Democrats was invited to support
Berlusconi, but refused and decided to run on its own instead.
White Rose originally planned to
run alone with
Bruno Tabacci as their
PM candidate, but shortly before the filing deadline, they decided
to form joint lists with the UDC.
The following lists ran in the election:
Results
Chamber of Deputies
Senate of the Republic
Composition of the elected
Senate.
Overall
Parliamentary groups in the
Italian Parliament at the inauguration of the 16th Republican
Legislature.
Parliamentary groups after 2008 Italian general
election
References
- Berlusconi plans Naples clean-up BBC News, 15
April 2008
- Berlusconi declares election win BBC News, 14
April 2008
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