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Robert James "Bob" Shiller (born Detroitmarker, Michiganmarker, March 29, 1946) is an Americanmarker economist, academic, and best-selling author. He currently serves as the Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics at Yale Universitymarker and is a Fellow at the Yale International Center for Finance, Yale School of Managementmarker. Shiller has been a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) since 1980, was Vice President of the American Economic Association in 2005, and President of the Eastern Economic Association for 2006-2007. He is also the founder and chief economist of the investment management firm MacroMarkets LLC.

Shiller is ranked among the 100 most influential economists of the world.

Career

Shiller received his B.A. from the University of Michiganmarker in 1967, S.M. from MITmarker in 1968, and his Ph.D. from MITmarker in 1972. He has taught at Yale since 1982 and previously held faculty positions at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvaniamarker and the University of Minnesotamarker, also giving frequent lectures at the London School of Economicsmarker. He has written on economic topics that range from behavioral finance to real estate to risk management, and has been co-organizer of NBER workshops on behavioral finance with Richard Thaler since 1991. His book Macro Markets won TIAA-CREF's first annual Paul A. Samuelson Award. He currently publishes a syndicated column.

In 1981 Shiller published an article in the American Economic Review titled "Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends?" He challenged the efficient markets model , which at that time was the dominant view in the economics profession . Shiller argued that in a rational stock market, investors would base stock prices on the expected receipt of future dividends, discounted to a present value . He examined the performance of the U.S. stock market since the 1920s, and considered the kinds of expectations of future dividends and discount rates that could justify the wide range of variation experienced in the stock market . Shiller concluded that the volatility of the stock market was greater than could plausibly be explained by any rational view of the future .

The behavioral finance school gained new credibility following the October 1987 stock market crash. Shiller's work included survey research that asked investors and stock traders what motivated them to make trades; the results further bolstered his hypothesis that these decisions are often driven by emotion instead of rational calculation. Much of this survey data has been gathered continuously since 1989, and is available at Yale's Investor Behavior Project.

In 1991, he formed Case Shiller Weiss with economists Karl Case and Allan Weiss. The company produced a repeat-sales index using home sales prices data from across the nation, studying home pricing trends. The index was developed by Shiller and Case when Case was studying unsustainable house pricing booms in Boston and Shiller was studying the behavioral aspects of economic bubbles. The repeat-sales index developed by Case and Shiller was later acquired and further developed by Fiserv and Standard & Poor, creating the Case-Shiller index.

His book Irrational Exuberance (2000) – a New York Times bestseller – warned that the stock market had become a bubble in March 2000 (the very height of the market top) which could lead to a sharp decline .

On CNBCmarker's "How to Profit from the Real Estate Boom" in 2005, he noted that housing price rises could not outstrip inflation in the long term because, except for land restricted sites, house prices would tend toward building costs plus normal economic profit . Co-panelist David Lereah disagreed. In February, Lereah had put out his book Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom? signaling the market top for housing prices. While Shiller repeated his precise timing again for another market bubble, because the general level of nationwide residential real estate prices do not reveal themselves until after a lag of about one year, people did not believe Shiller had called another top until late 2006 and early 2007.

It could not be said, however, that Robert Shiller foresaw the economic disaster that would come of the real estate boom. In his 2003 Brookings paper, "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?", Shiller wrote “I think that there are at least eight reasons to question the existence, or at least the importance, of a bubble in the housing market.”

Robert Shiller was awarded the Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics in 2009 for his pioneering research in the field of financial economics, relating to the dynamics of asset prices, such as fixed income, equities, and real estate, and their metrics. His work has been influential in the development of the theory as well as its implications for practice and policy-making. His contributions on risk sharing, financial market volatility, bubbles and crises, have received widespread attention among academics, practitioners and policy makers alike.



Books

  • Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism by George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller, Princeton University Press (2009), ISBN 978-0-691-14233-6.
  • The Subprime Solution: How Today's Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do about It by Robert J. Shiller, Princeton University Press (2008), ISBN 0691139296.
  • The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century, by Robert J. Shiller, Princeton University Press (2003), ISBN 0691091722.
  • Irrational Exuberance, by Robert J Shiller, Princeton University Press (2000), ISBN 0691050627.
  • Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society's largest Economic Risks by Robert J. Shiller, Clarendon Press, New York: Oxford University Press (1993), ISBN 0198287828.
  • Market Volatility, by Robert J. Shiller, MIT Press (1990), ISBN 026219290X.


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