The
United States presidential election of 1996 was a
contest between the Democratic national ticket of President Bill Clinton of Arkansas
and Vice President Al Gore of Tennessee
and the Republican national ticket of former
Senator Bob
Dole of Kansas
for
President and former Cabinet
Secretary Jack Kemp of New York
for Vice President.
Businessman
Ross Perot ran as candidate
for the
Reform Party
with economist
Pat Choate as his running
mate: he received less media attention and was excluded from the
presidential
debates and, while still obtaining substantial results for a
third-party candidate, by U.S. standards, did not renew his success
in the
1992
election. Clinton benefited from an economy which recovered
from the early 1990s recession, and a relatively stable world
stage. On November 5, 1996, President Clinton went on to win
re-election with a substantial margin in the popular vote and
electoral college.
Background
In 1995, the
United
States Republican Party was riding high on the gains made in
the 1994 congressional elections. In those elections, the
Republicans, led by
Newt Gingrich,
captured the majority of seats in the
United States House of
Representatives for the first time in forty years and the
majority of seats in the
U.S.
Senate for the first time in
eight years.
Nominations
Democratic Party nomination
Democratic candidates
Candidates gallery
Image:Bill
Clinton.jpg|President Bill Clinton of Arkansas
With the advantage of incumbency, Bill Clinton's path to
renomination by the
Democratic Party was
uneventful. At the
1996 Democratic National
Convention, Clinton and incumbent
Vice President Al Gore were renominated with token opposition.
Incarcerated fringe candidate
Lyndon
LaRouche won a few Arkansas delegates that were barred from the
convention.
Former Pennsylvania
governor Bob Casey
contemplated a challenge to Clinton, but health problems forced
Casey to abandon a bid.
Clinton easily won primaries nationwide, with margins consistently
higher than 80%.
Republican Party nomination
Republican Candidates
- Bob Dole, U.S.
senator from Kansas

- Pat Buchanan,
Conservative Columnist from Virginia

- Steve Forbes,
Newspaper and magazine publisher from New York

- Lamar
Alexander, former governor of Tennessee

- Phil Gramm, U.S. Senator from Texas

- Alan Keyes, former U.S. ECOSOC Ambassador from Maryland

- Richard Lugar, U.S. Senator from Indiana

- Bob Dornan, U.S.
representative from California

- Arlen Specter, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania

- Pete Wilson,
governor of California

- Morry Taylor,
businessman from Ohio

- Harold E. Stassen, Former Governor of Minnesota

Candidates gallery
Image:Bob
Dole, PCCWW photo portrait.JPG|Senator
Bob Dole of Kansas
Image:Patrickjbuchanan.JPG|Conservative Columnist Pat Buchanan of Virginia
Image:Steve_Forbes.jpg |Newspaper and
magazine publisher Steve
Forbes of New
York
Image:Lamar Alexander official
portrait.jpg|Former Governor
Lamar Alexander of
Tennessee
Image:Alan Keyes.jpg|Former U.S.
ECOSOC Ambassador Alan
Keyes of Maryland
Image:Dick Lugar offical photo.jpg|Senator
Richard Lugar of
Indiana
Image:PhilGramm.jpg|Senator Phil
Gramm of Texas
Image:DornanBob.jpg|Representative
Bob Dornan of California
Image:Arlen Specter official
portrait.jpg|Senator Arlen
Specter of Pennsylvania
Image:Pete Wilson meeting with Les Aspin,
Feb 3, 1993 - cropped to Wilson.JPEG|Governor Pete Wilson of California
Image:Harold E. Stassen.jpg|Former
Governor Harold E. Stassen of Minnesota
A number of Republican candidates entered the field to challenge
the incumbent Democratic president,
Bill
Clinton.
The fragmented field of candidates debated issues such as a
flat tax and other tax cut proposals, and a
return to
supply-side economic
policies popularized by
Ronald Reagan.
More attention was drawn to the race by the budget stalemate in
1995 between the Congress and the President, which caused temporary
shutdowns and slowdowns in many areas of federal government
service.
Former
U.S. Army General
Colin L. Powell was
widely courted as a potential Republican nominee. However, on
November 8, 1995, Powell announced that he would not seek the
nomination. Former
Secretary of
Defense and future
Vice President of the United
States Dick Cheney was touted by
many as a possible candidate for the presidency, but he declared
his intentions not to run in early 1995. Former and future
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld formed a presidential
campaign exploratory committee, but declined to formally enter the
race.
Primaries and convention
Going into the 1996 primary contest, Senate majority leader and
former vice-presidential nominee
Bob Dole
was seen as the most likely winner.
However, in the primaries and caucuses,
social conservative Pat Buchanan
received early victories in Alaska
, Louisiana
and New
Hampshire
, and
Steve Forbes in Delaware
and Arizona
which put Dole's leadership in doubt.
However,
Dole won every primary starting with North
and South Dakota
, which gave him a lock on the party
nomination. Dole resigned his Senate seat on June 11.
The Republican
National Convention formally nominated Dole on August 15, 1996
as the GOP candidate for the fall election.
Popular primaries vote
- Bob Dole - 9,024,742 (58.82%)
- Pat Buchanan - 3,184,943
(20.76%)
- Steve Forbes - 1,751,187
(11.41%)
- Lamar Alexander - 495,590
(3.23%)
- Alan Keyes - 471,716 (3.08%)
- Richard Lugar - 127,111
(0.83%)
- Unpledged - 123,278 (0.80%)
- Phil Gramm - 71,456 (0.47%)
- Bob Dornan - 42,140 (0.28%)
- Morry Taylor - 21,180 (0.14%)
Convention tally:
Former Congressman and Cabinet secretary
Jack
Kemp was nominated by acclamation as Dole's running mate the
following day.
Other politicians mentioned as possible GOP V.P. nominees before
Kemp was selected included:
- John Ashcroft, U.S. Senator from Missouri

- Ken Blackwell, Ohio State Treasurer
- Pat Buchanan, conservative
commentater
- George W. Bush, Governor
of Texas
- Carroll Campbell, Former
Governor of South
Carolina
- Jim Edgar, Governor of Illinois
- John Engler, Governor of Michigan
- Dan Lungren, California Attorney General
- Connie Mack III, U.S.
Senator
from Florida

- John McCain, U.S. Senator from
Arizona

- Tommy Thompson, Governor of Wisconsin
- George Voinovich, Governor of Ohio
Notable endorsements
Bob Dole
Pat Buchanan
Steve Forbes
Lamar Alexander
W. Phillip Gramm
Pete Wilson
Reform Party nomination
2 Reform candidates entered the field to challenge the incumbent
Democratic President,
Bill Clinton.
They were:
The
United
States Reform Party nominated party founder Ross Perot of Texas
in its first
election as an official political party. Although Perot easily
won the nomination, his victory at the party's national convention
led to a schism, as supporters of his opponent, former Governor Richard Lamm of Colorado
, accused him of rigging the vote to prevent them
from casting their ballots. This faction walked out of the
national convention and eventually formed their own group, the
American Reform Party.
Economist
Pat Choate was nominated for
Vice
President.
Other nominations
The
United States Green Party
- Ralph Nader of Connecticut
was draft as a
candidate for President
of the United States on the Green Party ticket. He
was not formally nominated by the
Green Party USA, which was, at the
time, the largest national Green group; instead he was nominated
independently by various state Green parties (in some areas, he
appeared on the ballot as an independent). Mr. Nader vowed to spend
only $5,000 in his election campaign (to avoid having to file a
financial statement with the FEC).
The
Socialist Party USA nominated
Mary Cal Hollis of Colorado and
Eric Chester of Massachusetts
.
The
Libertarian Party
nominated free-market writer and investment analyst, Harry Browne of Tennessee, and selected
Jo Jorgensen of South
Carolina
as his
running-mate.
The
U.S. Taxpayers Party, now known as the
Constitution
Party, nominated former aide to
President Ronald Reagan and Chairman of the
American Conservative Union
Howard Phillips for
President.
General election
Campaign
Without meaningful primary opposition,
Clinton was able to focus on the general
election early, while
Dole was forced to
move to the right and spend his campaign reserves fighting off
challengers. Political adviser
Dick
Morris urged Clinton to raise huge sums of campaign funds via
soft money for an unprecedented early TV
blitz of swing states promoting Clinton's agenda and record. As a
result, Clinton could run a campaign through the summer defining
his opponent as an aged conservative far from the mainstream before
Dole was in a position to respond. Compared to the 50-year old
Clinton, then 73-year old Dole appeared especially old and frail,
as illustrated by an embarrassing fall off a stage during a
campaign event. Dole further enhanced this contrast on September 18
when he made a reference to a no-hitter thrown the day before by
Hideo Nomo of the “
Brooklyn Dodgers”, a team that had left
Brooklyn for Los Angeles four decades earlier. A few days later
Dole would make a joke about the remark saying "And I'd like to
congratulate the
St. Louis
Cardinals on winning the
N.L. Central. Notice I said the St. Louis
Cardinals not the
St.
Louis Browns." (The Browns had left St. Louis after the 1954
season to become the
Baltimore
Orioles.)
With respect to the issues, Dole promised a 15% across-the-board
reduction in
income tax rates and made
former Congressman and
supply
side advocate
Jack Kemp his running
mate. Bill Clinton framed the narrative against Dole early,
painting him as a mere clone of unpopular House Speaker
Newt Gingrich, warning America that Bob Dole
would work in concert with the Republican Congress to slash popular
social programs, like Medicare and Social Security, dubbed by
Clinton as "Dole-Gingrich". Bob Dole's tax-cut plan found itself
under attack from the White House, who said it would "blow a hole
in the deficit" which had been cut nearly in half during his
opponent's term.
Throughout the run-up to the general election, Clinton maintained
comfortable leads in the polls over Dole and
Perot. The televised debates featured only Dole
and Clinton, locking out Perot and the other minor candidates from
the discussion. Perot, who had been allowed to participate in the
1992 debates, would eventually take his case to court, seeking
damages from not being in the debate, as well as citing unfair
coverage from the major media outlets.
Campaign donations controversy
In late September 1995, questions arose regarding the
Democratic National
Committee's fund-raising practices.
In February the
following year, the People's Republic of China
's alleged role in the campaign finance controversy
first gained public attention after the Washington Post published a story
stating that a U.S.
Department of Justice
investigation had discovered evidence that agents
of China sought to direct contributions from foreign sources to the
DNC before the 1996 presidential campaign. The paper wrote that
intelligence information had showed the Chinese Embassy in Washington,
D.C.
was used for coordinating contributions to the DNC
in violation of U.S. law forbidding non-American citizens from
giving monetary donations to U.S. politicians and political
parties. Seventeen people were eventually convicted for
fraud or for funneling Asian funds into the U.S. elections.
One of
the more notable events learned involved Vice President Al Gore and a fund-raising event held at Hsi Lai
Temple
in Hacienda Heights, California
. The Temple event was organized by DNC
fund-raisers
John Huang and
Maria Hsia. It is illegal under U.S. law for
religious organizations to donate money to politicians or political
groups due to their tax-exempt status. The U.S. Justice Department
alleged Hsia facilitated $100,000 in illegal contributions to the
1996 Clinton-Gore re-election campaign through her efforts at the
Temple. Hsia was eventually convicted by a jury in March 2000. The
DNC eventually returned the money donated by the Temple's monks and
nuns. Twelve nuns and employees of the Temple refused to answer
questions by pleading the
Fifth
Amendment when they were
subpoenaed to
testify before Congress in 1997.
Results
[[Image:1996prescountymap.PNG|thumb|right|400px|Election results by
county.
]]
In the end, President Clinton won a decisive victory over Dole,
becoming the first Democrat to win presidential reelection since
Franklin Roosevelt. In the popular vote, he outpolled Dole by over
8.2 million votes, even though like in 1992 he did not receive a
majority in the popular vote. The Electoral College map did not
change much from the previous election, with the Democratic
incumbent winning 379 votes to the Republican ticket's 159. In the
West, Dole managed to narrowly win Colorado and Montana (both had
voted for Clinton in 1992), while Clinton became the first Democrat
to win the state of Arizona since Harry Truman in 1948. In the
South, Clinton took Florida from the Republicans in exchange for
the less electoral-vote-rich Georgia. The election helped to cement
Democratic Presidential prospects in states including California,
Vermont, Maine, Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan,
Delaware, and Connecticut; all went on to vote Democratic in
subsequent Presidential elections, having voted Republican in the
three prior to 1992. Those states also voted for
Richard Nixon in the
1972 landslide.
1996 marked the first time since the
1944 Presidential
contest that New Hampshire voted for a Democrat in two
successive elections.
Reform Party nominee
Ross Perot won
approximately 8% of the popular vote. His vote total was less than
half of his performance in 1992. The 1996 national exit poll showed
that just as in 1992, Reform Party nominee Ross Perot's supporters
drew from Clinton and Dole equally. In polls directed at Perot
voters as to who would be a second choice, Clinton consistently
held substantial leads.
Although he hailed from Arkansas, Clinton carried just four of the
eleven states of the
American
South, tying his 1992 run for the weakest performance by a
winning Democratic presidential candidate in the region before 2000
(in terms of states won). Clinton's performance seems to have been
part of a broader decline in support for the Democratic Party in
the South. In the
2000 and
2004 election, the
Democrats would fail to carry even one of the Southern states,
contributing to their defeat both times. This completed the
Republican takeover of the American South, a region in which
Democrats had held a near monopoly from 1880 to 1960. However, in
2008, the Democrats were able to win three Southern States, but
that was still worse than Clinton's performances in both 1992 and
1996. This was the last election in which a 3rd party candidate
carried over 3% of the national popular vote. Since 1984, no
winning Presidential candidate has surpassed Bill Clinton's 8.5
percentage popular vote margin, or his 220 electoral vote margin
since 1988. Also note that no Democratic Presidential candidate has
surpassed Clinton's 8.5 percentage popular vote margin since 1940
(except 1964), and no Democratic Presidential candidate has
surpassed his electoral vote margin since 1944 (except 1964).The
election was also notable for the fact that for the first time in
U.S. history the winner was elected without winning the male
vote.
This was
the last time the following states voted Democratic: Arizona
, Arkansas
, Tennessee
, Louisiana
, Kentucky
, West
Virginia
and
Missouri
as of the 2008 election.
Official Source (Popular Vote): 1996
Official Presidential General Election Results
Source (popular and electoral vote): Federal Elections Commission Electoral and Popular Vote
Summaryunofficial
Secondary Source (Popular
Vote):
Voting age population: 196,498,000
Percent of voting age population casting a vote for
President: 49.00%
(a) In New York
, the Clinton vote was a fusion of the Democratic
and Liberal
slates. There, Clinton obtained 3,649,630 votes on
the Democratic ticket and 106,547 votes on the Liberal
ticket.
(b) In New York
, the Dole vote was a fusion of the Republican,
Conservative,
and Freedom slates. There, Dole obtained 1,738,707
votes on the Republican ticket, 183,392 votes on the Conservative
ticket, and 11,393 votes on the Freedom ticket.
(c) In South
Carolina
, the Perot
vote was a fusion of the Reform and Patriot slates.
There, Perot obtained 27,464 votes on the Reform ticket and
36,913 votes on the Patriot ticket.
(d) On the California
, Indiana
, Iowa
, Kansas
, Louisiana
, Maine
, Maryland
, Missouri
, Montana
, Oregon
, South Dakota
, Tennessee
, and Texas
election
ballots, James Campbell of California, Perot's former boss at
IBM, was listed as a stand-in Vice-Presidential
candidate until Perot decided on Pat Choate as his choice for Vice
President.
(e) The Green Party vice presidential
candidate varied from state to state, giving Nader a total of four
running mates. Winona LaDuke
was his vice presidential candidate in nineteen of the twenty-two
states where he appeared on the ballot. Anne Goeke was Nader's running mate in Iowa and
Pennsylvania. Madelyn
Hoffman was Nader's running mate in New Jersey. And
Muriel Tillinghast was the
running mate in New York.
(f)
Close states
States where margin of victory 5%
- Kentucky,
0.96%
- Nevada,
1.02%
- Georgia, 1.17%
- Colorado, 1.37%
- Virginia, 1.96%
- Arizona,
2.22%
- Tennessee,
2.41%
- Montana, 2.88%
- South Dakota,
3.46%
- North Carolina,
4.69%
- Texas, 4.93%
Source: David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections- County Data
Voter demographics
The Presidential vote in social groups
(percentages) |
Social group |
Clinton |
Dole |
Perot |
% of
total vote
|
Total vote |
49 |
41 |
8 |
100 |
Party and ideology |
Liberal
Republicans |
44 |
48 |
9 |
2 |
Moderate Republicans |
20 |
72 |
7 |
13 |
Conservative
Republicans |
6 |
88 |
5 |
21 |
Liberal independent |
58 |
15 |
18 |
4 |
Moderate independents |
50 |
30 |
17 |
15 |
Conservative independents |
19 |
60 |
19 |
7 |
Liberal Democrats |
89 |
5 |
4 |
13 |
Moderate Democrats |
84 |
10 |
5 |
20 |
Conservative
Democrats |
69 |
23 |
7 |
6 |
Gender and marital status |
Married men |
40 |
48 |
10 |
33 |
Married women |
63 |
28 |
7 |
33 |
Unmarried men |
49 |
35 |
12 |
15 |
Unmarried women |
62 |
28 |
7 |
20 |
Race |
White |
43 |
46 |
9 |
83 |
Black |
84 |
12 |
4 |
10 |
Hispanic |
72 |
21 |
6 |
5 |
Asian |
43 |
48 |
8 |
1 |
Religion |
White Protestant |
36 |
53 |
10 |
46 |
Catholic |
53 |
37 |
9 |
29 |
Jewish |
78 |
16 |
3 |
3 |
Born again/religious right |
26 |
65 |
8 |
17 |
Age |
18–29 years old |
53 |
34 |
10 |
17 |
30–44 years old |
48 |
41 |
9 |
33 |
45–59 years old |
48 |
41 |
9 |
26 |
60 and older |
48 |
44 |
7 |
24 |
Education |
Not a high
school graduate |
59 |
28 |
11 |
6 |
High school graduate |
51 |
35 |
13 |
24 |
Some college education |
48 |
40 |
10 |
27 |
College graduate |
44 |
46 |
8 |
26 |
Postgraduate
education |
52 |
40 |
5 |
17 |
Family income |
Under $15,000 |
59 |
28 |
11 |
11 |
$15,000–$29,999 |
53 |
36 |
9 |
23 |
$30,000–$49,999 |
48 |
40 |
10 |
27 |
Over $50,000 |
44 |
48 |
7 |
39 |
Over $75,000 |
41 |
51 |
7 |
18 |
Over $100,000 |
38 |
54 |
6 |
9 |
Region |
East |
55 |
34 |
9 |
23 |
Midwest |
48 |
41 |
10 |
26 |
South |
46 |
46 |
7 |
30 |
West |
48 |
40 |
8 |
20 |
Community size |
Population over 500,000 |
68 |
25 |
6 |
10 |
Population 50,000 to 500,000 |
50 |
39 |
8 |
21 |
Suburbs |
47 |
42 |
8 |
39 |
Rural areas, towns |
45 |
44 |
10 |
30 |
Source: Voter News Service exit poll, reported in
The New York Times,
November 10, 1996, 28.
Polling controversy
Some post-election debate focused on the alleged flaws in the
pre-election polls, almost all of which overstated Clinton's lead
over Dole, some by a substantial margin. For example, a CBS/New
York Times poll overstated Clinton's lead by 10 points despite
having an error margin of 2.4%. The odds against this sort of error
occurring were 15,000:1. A less extreme example was a Pew poll
which overstated Clinton's lead by 5 points, the chances of this
happening were 10:1 against. Gerald Wasserman, having examined
eight pre-election polls, argued that pure chance would produce
such a skewed result in favor of Clinton only once in 4,900
elections. Some Republicans believe that the large leads Clinton
enjoyed throughout the campaign caused many conservatives to write
off the Dole candidacy as a lost cause.
See also
References
- [1]
- http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55214
- Our Campaigns - AZ US President - R Primary Race - Feb 27,
1996
- Our Campaigns - DE US President - R Primary Race - Feb 24,
1996
- Our Campaigns - Candidate - George Corley
Wallace
- Our Campaigns - LA US President - R Primary Race - Mar 12,
1996
- Clinton And Dole, Face To Face, Spar Over Medicare
And Taxes - New York Times
- 09/02/96 MEDICARE, TAXES, AND BOB DOLE: A TALK WITH
THE PRESIDENT
- Woodward, Bob and Duffy, Brian, "Chinese Embassy Role In Contributions Probed",
Washington Post, February 13, 1997
- Eskenazi, Michael, "For both Gore and GOP, a guilty verdict to
watch", CNN.com, March 3, 2000
- Abse, Nathan, "A Look at the 94 Who Aren't Talking",
Washington Post, June 9, 1998
- THE 1992 ELECTIONS: DISAPPOINTMENT - NEWS ANALYSIS
An Eccentric but No Joke; Perot's Strong Showing Raises Questions
On What Might Have Been, and Might Be - New York Times
- Presidential Election Exit Poll
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/elections/natl.exit.poll/index1.html
- 1996 Election Tracking Polls
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/polls/cnn.usa.gallup/tracking/
- Polls
- Were The Polls Right?
Further reading
Books
Journals
Web references
External links