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United States presidential election in Pennsylvania, 2004: Map

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The 2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C.marker, which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 21 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Pennsylvaniamarker was considered a major swing state. The Cook Political Report named this state a toss up. It was the only one of three crtical swing statesto choose the Democratic opponent (Ohio and Florida, the other two extremely pivotal states, both went for Bush.) the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1992, the margins of victory have become smaller over the past elections. On election day, Kerry won the state with a weak 50.9% of the vote with an estimated 2% margin of victory. He won only 13 of the 67 counties in Pennsylvania, but most of these 13 counties have the highest populations in the commonwealth. The biggest key to Kerry's victory was in the most populated area of the state, which was winning the city and county of Philadelphia with 80% of the vote.

Primaries



Campaign

Polling

Al Gore won here in 2000 with barely 50% of the vote. In late October 2004, the state was split at 47% on whether or not to approve of Bush. But Kerry won the poll 48% to 46% in the last Mason Dixon poll. Throughout the election of 2004, Kerry won most of the polls in the upper 40% to lower 50% range. However, Bush polled within the margin of error, usually in the mid 40% range. In the last Real Clear Politics average Kerry was leading with 48% and by almost a 1% margin.

Fundraising

Bush raised $5,030,349. Kerry raised $4,998,861.

Advertising and visits

Bush campaigned heavily in the state and dropped by here over 20 times in 2004. But it wasn't enough to swing the undecided voters as Kerry won the state's electors with almost 51% of the vote, slightly higher than Gore.

Analysis

This Kerry victory can be attributed to the overwhelmingly Democratic cities of Philadelphiamarker, Pittsburghmarker, and Eriemarker. While it should be noted that smaller Kerry-held cities which voted for the Senator by narrow margins assisted him in advancing his margin over President Bush, many political anaylsts underscored the fact that if Philadelphia were excluded, President George W. Bush would have won Pennsylvania by a fairly slim margin, with 2,663,748 versus 2,395,890 for Kerry. Interestingly, though Pennsylvania is closely divided in most elections, it has not voted Republican in a Presidential election since 1988.

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were the biggest contributors to Kerry's victory in Pennsylvania. However, many independents in suburban Philadelphia counties (Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery, and somewhat in Chester) voted for Kerry, which may well have been the deciding factor. Kerry also had narrow margins of victory around cities like Allentown, Scranton, Erie, and the traditionally Democratic Pittsburgh suburbs; he also garnered many votes in certain rural areas such as parts of the Poconos and the Laurel Highlands, and in cities like Reading, Johnstown, Harrisburg, and State College. Bush's margins were extremely large in Central Pennsylvania and the sparsely populated Northern Tier, with traditional GOP cities such as Lancaster, Lebanon, York, Altoona, Huntingdon, and Williamsport strongly throwing their support behind him. This area, along with rural western Maryland, was clearly the most conservative in the Northeast.

Results

United States presidential election in Iowa, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 2,938,095 50.9% 21
Republican George W. Bush (Inc.) 2,793,847 48.4% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 21,185 0.4% 0
Green David Cobb 6,319 0.1% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 6,319 0.1% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 2,656 0.1% 0
Independent Write Ins 1,170 0.1% 0


Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others#
Adamsmarker 32.6% 13,764 66.9% 28,247 0.5% 217
Alleghenymarker 57.2% 368,912 42.1% 271,925 0.7% 4,632
Armstrongmarker 38.7% 12,025 60.9% 18,925 0.5% 147
Beavermarker 51.1% 42,146 48.4% 39,916 0.6% 481
Bedfordmarker 26.5% 6,016 73.2% 16,606 0.3% 57
Berksmarker 46.4% 76,309 53.0% 87,122 0.6% 1,056
Blairmarker 33.4% 18,105 66.0% 35,751 0.6% 322
Bradfordmarker 33.5% 8,590 66.0% 16,942 0.5% 120
Bucksmarker 51.1% 163,438 48.3% 154,469 0.6% 1,909
Butlermarker 35.2% 30,090 64.3% 54,959 0.4% 376
Cambriamarker 48.7% 32,591 50.8% 34,048 0.5% 344
Cameronmarker 33.0% 794 66.5% 1,599 0.5% 13
Carbonmarker 48.8% 12,223 50.0% 12,519 1.2% 301
Centremarker 47.8% 30,733 51.6% 33,133 0.6% 387
Chestermarker 47.5% 109,708 52.0% 120,036 0.5% 1,079
Clarionmarker 35.2% 6,049 64.4% 11,063 0.4% 72
Clearfieldmarker 39.5% 13,518 60.0% 20,533 0.5% 182
Clintonmarker 41.7% 5,823 57.5% 8,035 0.8% 109
Columbiamarker 39.7% 10,679 59.7% 16,052 0.5% 138
Crawfordmarker 41.8% 16,013 57.3% 21,965 0.9% 344
Cumberlandmarker 35.8% 37,928 63.8% 67,648 0.5% 506
Dauphinmarker 45.6% 55,299 53.9% 65,296 0.5% 613
Delawaremarker 57.1% 162,601 42.3% 120,425 0.5% 1,512
Elkmarker 45.4% 6,602 54.1% 7,872 0.5% 76
Eriemarker 53.9% 67,921 45.6% 57,372 0.5% 605
Fayettemarker 53.2% 29,120 45.8% 25,045 1.0% 542
Forestmarker 38.4% 989 61.1% 1,571 0.5% 13
Franklinmarker 28.3% 16,562 71.4% 41,817 0.3% 190
Fultonmarker 23.5% 1,475 76.1% 4,772 0.4% 24
Greenemarker 49.3% 7,674 50.0% 7,786 0.7% 105
Huntingdonmarker 32.6% 5,879 67.2% 12,126 0.3% 53
Indianamarker 43.7% 15,831 55.9% 20,254 0.4% 163
Jeffersonmarker 31.0% 6,073 68.4% 13,371 0.6% 116
Juniatamarker 28.0% 2,797 71.4% 7,144 0.6% 65
Lackawannamarker 56.3% 59,573 42.3% 44,766 1.4% 1,480
Lancastermarker 33.6% 74,328 65.8% 145,591 0.6% 1,359
Lawrencemarker 49.2% 21,387 50.5% 21,938 0.3% 117
Lebanonmarker 32.5% 18,109 66.6% 37,089 0.8% 467
Lehighmarker 51.0% 73,940 48.4% 70,160 0.7% 991
Luzernemarker 51.1% 69,573 47.7% 64,953 1.1% 1,502
Lycomingmarker 31.3% 15,681 67.9% 33,961 0.8% 407
McKeanmarker 36.1% 6,294 62.8% 10,941 1.1% 191
Mercermarker 48.2% 24,831 51.0% 26,311 0.8% 422
Mifflinmarker 29.1% 4,889 69.8% 11,726 1.1% 187
Monroemarker 49.6% 27,967 49.6% 27,971 0.7% 404
Montgomerymarker 55.6% 222,048 44.0% 175,741 0.5% 1,802
Montourmarker 35.0% 2,666 64.3% 4,903 0.7% 55
Northamptonmarker 50.1% 63,446 49.0% 62,102 0.9% 1,192
Northumberlandmarker 39.3% 14,602 60.0% 22,262 0.7% 270
Perrymarker 27.9% 5,423 71.6% 13,919 0.4% 85
Philadelphiamarker 80.4% 542,205 19.3% 130,099 0.3% 1,765
Pikemarker 40.6% 8,656 58.4% 12,444 0.9% 199
Pottermarker 28.5% 2,268 70.8% 5,640 0.7% 54
Schuylkillmarker 44.8% 29,231 54.6% 35,640 0.6% 398
Snydermarker 29.0% 4,348 70.5% 10,566 0.5% 69
Somersetmarker 34.9% 12,842 64.7% 23,802 0.4% 134
Sullivanmarker 36.9% 1,213 62.6% 2,056 0.5% 16
Susquehannamarker 38.6% 7,351 60.8% 11,573 0.6% 116
Tiogamarker 30.9% 5,437 68.4% 12,019 0.7% 115
Unionmarker 35.4% 5,700 64.1% 10,334 0.6% 89
Venangomarker 38.1% 9,024 61.2% 14,472 0.7% 163
Warrenmarker 41.7% 8,044 57.1% 10,999 1.2% 230
Washingtonmarker 50.1% 48,225 49.6% 47,673 0.3% 279
Waynemarker 36.7% 8,060 62.4% 13,713 0.9% 194
Westmorelandmarker 43.5% 77,774 56.0% 100,087 0.5% 835
Wyomingmarker 38.8% 4,982 60.6% 7,782 0.5% 68
Yorkmarker 35.5% 63,701 63.7% 114,270 0.7% 1,298


By congressional district

Kerry won 10 of 19 congressional districts.
District Bush Kerry
15% 84%
12% 87%
53% 47%
54% 45%
61% 39%
48% 52%
47% 53%
48% 51%
67% 33%
60% 40%
47% 53%
49% 51%
43% 56%
30% 69%
50% 50%
61% 38%
58% 42%
54% 46%
64% 36%


Electors

Technically the voters of Pa. cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Pa. is allocated 21 electors because it has 19 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 21 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 21 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbiamarker met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 21 were pledged for Bush/Cheney.
  1. Lynne Abraham - District Attorney of Philadelphiamarker
  2. Richard W. Bloomingdale
  3. Blondell Reynolds Brown - Philadelphia City Councilwoman
  4. Robert P. Casey Jr. - Pennsylvania Auditor General
  5. Eileen Connelly
  6. H. William DeWeese - Minority Leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives
  7. John Dougherty - Union Leader
  8. Richard E. Filippi - Mayor of Erie
  9. William M. George
  10. Renee Gillinger - Activist
  11. Jennifer L. Mann - State Representative
  12. Robert J. Mellow - Minority Leader of the Pennsylvania Sentate
  13. Dan Onorato - Allegheny County Executive
  14. Juan Ramos - Philadelphia City Councilman
  15. Stephen R. Reed - Mayor of Harrisburg
  16. T. J. Rooney - State Representative, Democratic Party Chairman
  17. Jonathan Saidel - Philadelphia City Controller
  18. John F. Street - Mayor of Philadelphia
  19. Rosemary Trump
  20. Sala Udin - Former Pittsburgh City Councilman
  21. Constance H. Williams - State Senator


References

  1. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6369953/
  2. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/pa_polls.html
  3. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.11.html
  6. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  7. http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/


See also


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