
Population by region as a percentage
of world population (1750–2005)
The
world population is the total number of living
humans on
Earth at a
given time. As of , the Earth's
population is estimated by the
United States Census Bureau to
be billion. The world population has been growing continuously
since the end of the
Black Death around
1400. The fastest rates of
world
population growth (above 1.8%) were seen briefly during the
1950s then for a longer period during the 1960s and 1970s (see
graph).
According to population projections, world population will continue
to
grow until at least 2050. The
2008 rate of growth has almost halved since its peak of 2.2% per
year, which was reached in 1963. World births have levelled off at
about 134 million per year, since their peak at 163-million in the
late 1990s, and are expected to remain constant. However, deaths
are only around 57 million per year, and are expected to increase
to 90 million by the year 2050. Because births outnumber deaths,
the world's population is
expected to reach about 9 billion
by the year 2040.
Population figures
A dramatic
population
bottleneck is theorized for the period around 70,000 BC (see
Toba catastrophe theory).
After this time and until the development of agriculture, it is
estimated that the world population stabilized at about one million
people whose subsistence entailed hunting and foraging, a lifestyle
that by its nature ensured a low population density. It is
estimated that over 55 million people lived in the combined eastern
and western
Roman Empire (AD 300–400).
The
Plague of Justinian caused
Europe's population to drop by
around 50% between 541 and the 700s. The population of the world
was more than 440 million in 1340. The
Black
Death pandemic in the 14th century may
have reduced the world's population from an estimated
450 million to between 350 and 375 million in 1400. It
took roughly 200 years for Europe's population to regain its 1340
level.
At the
founding of the Ming dynasty in 1368, China
's population
was reported to be close to 60 million, and toward the end of the
dynasty in 1644 it might have approached 150 million.
England
's population
reached an estimated 5.6 million in 1650, up from an estimated 2.6
million in 1500. New crops that had come to
Asia and
Europe from the Americas
via the Spanish colonizers in the 16th century contributed to the
population growth. Since being introduced by Portuguese traders in
the 16th century,
maize and
manioc have replaced traditional
African crops as the continent’s most important
staple food crops.
Alfred W.
Crosby speculated that increased
production of maize, manioc, and otherAmerican crops "enabled the
slave traders drew many, perhaps most,
of their cargoes from the rain forest areas, precisely those areas
where American crops enabled heavier settlement thanbefore."

Scholars estimate that between 900,000
and 18 million people inhabited North America north of present-day
Mexico at the time of European contact.

Cities with at least one million
inhabitants in 2006.
In 1800, only 3% of the world's population lived in cities, a
figure that has risen to 47% by the end of the twentieth
century.
Encounters between European explorers and populations in the rest
of the world often introduced local epidemics of extraordinary
virulence. Archaeological evidence indicates that the death of 90
to 95% of the
Native
American population of the
New World
was caused by
Old World diseases such as
smallpox, measles, and influenza. Over the
centuries, the Europeans had developed high degrees of immunity to
these diseases, while the indigenous peoples had no such
immunity.
During the
Agricultural and
Industrial Revolutions, the
life expectancy of children increased
dramatically. The percentage of the children born in London who
died before the age of five decreased from 74.5% in 1730-1749 to
31.8% in 1810-1829.
Europe’s population
doubled during the 18th century, from roughly 100 million to almost
200 million, and doubled again during the 19th century. The
population growth became more rapid after the introduction of
compulsory
vaccination and improvements
in medicine and sanitation. As living conditions and health care
improved during the 19th century, Britain's population doubled
every 50 years. By 1801 the
population of England had grown to
8.3 million, and by 1901 had grown to 30.5 million.
The population of the
Indian
subcontinent, which stood at about 125 million in 1750, had
reached 389 million by 1941. The region is currently home to 1.5
billion people.
The total number of inhabitants of Java
increased
from about 5 million in 1815 to more than 130 million in the early
21st century. Mexico
's population
has grown from 13.6 million in 1900 to about 112 million in
2009.
Below is a
table with historical and predicted
population figures shown in
millions.
The availability of historical population figures varies by
region.
World historical and predicted populations (in
millions)
| Region |
1750 |
1800 |
1850 |
1900 |
1950 |
1999 |
2008 |
2050 |
2150 |
| World |
791 |
978 |
1,262 |
1,650 |
2,521 |
5,978 |
6,707 |
8,909 |
9,746 |
| Africa |
106 |
107 |
111 |
133 |
221 |
767 |
973 |
1,766 |
2,308 |
| Asia |
502 |
635 |
809 |
947 |
1,402 |
3,634 |
4,054 |
5,268 |
5,561 |
| Europe |
163 |
203 |
276 |
408 |
547 |
729 |
732 |
628 |
517 |
| Latin America and the Caribbean * |
16 |
24 |
38 |
74 |
167 |
511 |
577 |
809 |
912 |
| Northern America * |
2 |
7 |
26 |
82 |
172 |
307 |
337 |
392 |
398 |
| Oceania |
2 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
13 |
30 |
34 |
46 |
51 |
World historical and predicted populations by percentage
distribution
| Region |
1750 |
1800 |
1850 |
1900 |
1950 |
1999 |
2008 |
2050 |
2150 |
| World |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| Africa |
13.4 |
10.9 |
8.8 |
8.1 |
8.8 |
12.8 |
14.5 |
19.8 |
23.7 |
| Asia |
63.5 |
64.9 |
64.1 |
57.4 |
55.6 |
60.8 |
60.4 |
59.1 |
57.1 |
| Europe |
20.6 |
20.8 |
21.9 |
24.7 |
21.7 |
12.2 |
10.9 |
7.0 |
5.3 |
| Latin America and the Caribbean * |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
4.5 |
6.6 |
8.5 |
8.6 |
9.1 |
9.4 |
| Northern America * |
0.3 |
0.7 |
2.1 |
5.0 |
6.8 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
| Oceania |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
Estimated world population at various dates (in
millions)
| Year |
World |
Africa |
Asia |
Europe |
Latin America * |
Northern
America* |
Oceania |
Notes |
| 70,000 BC |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 10,000 BC |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 9000 BC |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 8000 BC |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 7000 BC |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 6000 BC |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 5000 BC |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 4000 BC |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3000 BC |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2000 BC |
35 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1000 BC |
50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 500 BC |
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
200 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1000 |
310 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1750 |
791 |
106 |
502 |
163 |
16 |
2 |
2 |
|
| 1800 |
978 |
107 |
635 |
203 |
24 |
7 |
2 |
|
| 1850 |
1,262 |
111 |
809 |
276 |
38 |
26 |
2 |
|
| 1900 |
1,650 |
133 |
947 |
408 |
74 |
82 |
6 |
|
| 1950 |
2,519 |
221 |
1,398 |
547 |
167 |
172 |
12.8 |
|
| 1955 |
2,756 |
247 |
1,542 |
575 |
191 |
187 |
14.3 |
|
| 1960 |
2,982 |
277 |
1,674 |
601 |
209 |
204 |
15.9 |
|
| 1965 |
3,335 |
314 |
1,899 |
634 |
250 |
219 |
17.6 |
|
| 1970 |
3,692 |
357 |
2,143 |
656 |
285 |
232 |
19.4 |
|
| 1975 |
4,068 |
408 |
2,397 |
675 |
322 |
243 |
21.5 |
|
| 1980 |
4,435 |
470 |
2,632 |
692 |
361 |
256 |
22.8 |
|
| 1985 |
4,831 |
542 |
2,887 |
706 |
401 |
269 |
24.7 |
|
| 1990 |
5,263 |
622 |
3,168 |
721 |
441 |
283 |
26.7 |
|
| 1995 |
5,674 |
707 |
3,430 |
727 |
481 |
299 |
28.9 |
|
| 2000 |
6,070 |
796 |
3,680 |
728 |
520 |
316 |
31.0 |
|
| 2005 |
6,454 |
888 |
3,917 |
725 |
558 |
332 |
32.9 |
|
| Jul. 1, 2008 |
6,707 |
973 |
4,054 |
732 |
577 |
337 |
34.3 |
[703448] |
| Year |
World |
Africa |
Asia |
Europe |
Latin America* |
Northern
America* |
Oceania |
Notes |
|
*
Northern America comprises the
northern countries and territories of North America: Canada
, the
United
States
, Greenland
, Bermuda
, and
St. Pierre and
Miquelon
. Latin
America comprises Middle
America (Mexico
, the nations
of Central America, and the Caribbean
) and South
America.
The figures for North and Central America only refer to
post-European contact settlers, and not native populations from
before European settlement.
Rate of increase
Different regions have different rates of
population growth. According to the above
table, the growth in population of the different regions from 2000
to 2005 was:
- 237.771 million in Asia
- 92.293 million in Africa
- 38.052 million in Latin America
- 16.241 million in Northern America
- 1.955 million in Oceania
- -3.264 million in Europe
- 383.047 million in the whole world
In the 20th century, the world saw the biggest increase in its
population in human history due to lessening of the
mortality rate in many countries due to
medical advances
and massive increase in agricultural productivity attributed to the
Green Revolution.
In 2000, the
United Nations estimated
that the world's population was growing at the rate of 1.14% (or
about 75 million people) per year, down from a peak of 88 million
per year in 1989. In the last few centuries, the number of people
living on Earth has increased many times over. By the year 2000,
there were 10 times as many people on Earth as there were 300 years
ago. According to data from the CIA's 2005–2006
World Factbook, the world human
population increased by 203,800 every day.The CIA Factbook
increased this to 211,090 people every day in 2007, and again to
220,980 people every day in 2009.

Map of countries and territories by
fertility rate
Globally, the population
growth
rate has been steadily declining from its peak of 2.19% in
1963, but growth remains high in
Latin
America, the
Middle East and
Sub-Saharan Africa.
In some countries there is negative population growth (i.e. net
decrease in population over time), especially in
Central and
Eastern
Europe (mainly due to low
fertility
rates) and
Southern Africa (due
to the high number of
HIV-related deaths).
Within the
next decade, Japan
and some
countries in Western Europe are also
expected to encounter negative population growth due to sub-replacement fertility
rates.
In 2006, the
United Nations stated
that the rate of population growth is diminishing due to the
demographic transition. If
this trend continues, the rate of growth may diminish to zero,
concurrent with a world population plateau of 9.2 billion, in 2050.
However, this is only one of many estimates published by the UN. In
2009, UN projections for 2050 range from about 8 billion to 10.5
billion.
Image:Population curve.svg|Population (est.)
10,000 BC–AD 2000.Image:World population
curve - log y scale.png|Population (est.) 10,000 BC–AD 2000 in
log y scaleImage:World population
history.svg|World population 1950–2000Image:World population
increase history.svg|Increase rate 1950–2000
Models
Hoerner (1975) proposed the following formula:
- N = \frac{C}{T_0-T}
where
- N is current population
- T is the current year
- C = 2·1011
- T0 = 2025
but this represents
hyperbolic
growth with an infinite population in 2025.
According to
Kapitsa (1997), the
population grew between 67000 BC and 1965, and the world population
growth formula is:
- N = \frac{C}{\tau} \arccot \frac{T_0-T}{\tau}
where
- N is current population
- T is the current year
- C = (1.86±0.01)·1011
- T0 = 2007±1
- \tau = 42±1
The transition from hyperboles to slower rates of growth is called
demographic transition.
Milestones

World Population Milestones (in
billions, estimated).
World population
estimates milestones
Population
(in billions) |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
| Year |
1804 |
1927 |
1959 |
1974 |
1987 |
1999 |
2012 |
2025 |
2040 |
| Years elapsed |
123 |
32 |
14.75 |
13.25 |
12.25 |
12.33 |
13 |
15 |
There is currently no estimation on the exact day the world's
population surpassed both the 1 and 2 billion marks. The day of 3
and 4 billion were not officially celebrated, but the International
Database of the U.S. Census Bureau places them around July 1959,
and April 1974. The United Nations did determine, and celebrate,
the "Day of 5 billion" (July 11, 1987), and the "Day of 6 billion"
(October 12, 1999). The U.S. Census bureau, International Programs
division, currently estimated that the world reached 6 billion on
April 21, 1999 (several months earlier than the official UN day).
The "Day of 7 billion" has been targeted by the Census Bureau to be
in July 2012.
Years for population to double
Using linear interpolation of the
UNDESA estimates, the world
population has been doubled or will double in the following years
(with two different starting points). Note how, during the
2nd millennium, each doubling has taken
roughly half as long as the previous doubling, fitting the
hyperbolic growth model mentioned above. However, it is unlikely
that there will be another doubling in the current century.

Years for Population to Double
Starting at 500 million
Population
(in billions) |
0.5 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
| Year |
1500 |
1804 |
1927 |
1974 |
2025 |
| Years elapsed |
304 |
123 |
47 |
51 |
Starting at 375 million
Population
(in billions) |
0.375 |
0.75 |
1.5 |
3 |
6 |
| Year |
1181 |
1715 |
1881 |
1960 |
1999 |
| Years elapsed |
534 |
166 |
79 |
39 |
Distribution
Asia accounts for over 60% of the world
population with almost 3.8 billion people.
The People's
Republic of China
and India
alone
comprise 20% and 17% respectively. Africa follows with 840 million people, 12% of the
world's population.
Europe's 710 million
people make up 11% of the world's population.
North America is home to 514 million (8%),
South America to 371 million (5.3%),
and
Australia to 21 million (0.3%).
Most populous nations
The 10 most densely populated countries
| Rank |
Country |
Population |
Area (km2) |
Density (Pop per km2) |
Notes |
| 1 |
Monaco |
32,719 |
1.95 |
16,779 |
|
| 2 |
Singapore |
4,620,657 |
707.1 |
6,535 |
|
| 3 |
Vatican City |
824 |
0.44 |
1,873 |
|
| 4 |
Maldives |
385,375 |
298 |
1,293 |
|
| 5 |
Malta |
404,032 |
316 |
1,279 |
|
| 6 |
Bahrain |
723,967 |
665 |
1,089 |
|
| 7 |
Bangladesh |
155,688,660 |
147,570 |
1,055 |
|
| 8 |
Palestinian territories |
4,223,760 |
6,020 |
702 |
|
| 9 |
Nauru |
13,918 |
21 |
663 |
|
| 10 |
Taiwan |
22,955,395 |
36,190 |
634 |
|
|

Population by region, 2007
The 16 countries with the largest total
population:
| Rank |
Country / Territory |
Population |
Date |
% of world population |
Source |
| 1 |
(excluding Hong
Kong and Macau )
|
1,334,018,022 |
|
% |
Chinese
Population Clock |
| 2 |
|
1,198,003,000 |
|
% |
UN estimate |
| 3 |
|
307,896,665 |
|
% |
Official USA Population clock |
| 4 |
|
230,729,491 |
|
% |
Indonesian Population clock |
| 5 |
|
192,012,993 |
|
% |
Brazilian
Population clock |
| 6 |
|
167,905,500 |
|
% |
Pakistani
Population clock |
| 7 |
|
157,813,124 |
|
% |
Private Bangladeshi Population clock |
| 8 |
|
148,235,170 |
|
% |
UN estimate |
| 9 |
|
141,889,164 |
|
% |
Russian Population Clock |
| 10 |
|
127,614,000 |
|
% |
Japanese Statistics Bureau |
| 11 |
|
111,809,963 |
|
% |
Private Mexican Population Clock |
| 12 |
|
94,377,140 |
|
% |
Private Filipino Population Clock |
| 13 |
|
87,017,453 |
|
% |
Private Vietnamese Population Clock |
| 14 |
|
82,060,000 |
|
% |
Federal Statistical Office of Germany |
| 15 |
|
79,221,000 |
|
% |
Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency |
| 16 |
|
77,439,137 |
|
% |
Egyptian Population Clock |
|
Approximately 4.51 billion people live in these 16 countries,
representing roughly two-thirds (66.7%) of the world's population
as of February 2009.
Countries ranking in the top 40 both in terms of total
population (more than 29 million people) and population density (more than 310 people
per square kilometer):
| Country |
Population |
Density (Pop. per km2) |
Notes |
India |
1,198,003,000 |
352.9 |
Second largest country in terms of population |
Bangladesh |
155,688,660 |
1,055.0 |
Largest fast growing country |
Japan |
127,170,110 |
336.5 |
Declining in population |
Philippines |
93,843,460 |
312.8 |
Fast growing country |
South Korea |
49,354,980 |
493.4 |
Steady in population |
Ethnicity
The world is made up of thousands of
ethnic
groups. The single largest ethnic group on the planet by far is
Han Chinese, which represents 19.73% of
the global population.
Demographics of youth
According to the 2006
CIA World
Factbook, around 27% of the world's population is below 15
years of age.
Before adding mortality rates, the 1990s saw the greatest number of
raw births worldwide, especially in the years after 1995, despite
the fact that the birth rate was not as high as in the 1960s. In
fact, because of the 163 million-per-year raw births after 1995,
the time it took to reach the next 10
9 reached its
fastest pace (only 12 years), as world population reached 6 billion
people in 1999, when at the beginning of the decade, the reaching
was designated for the year 2000, by most demographers. These
people aged 9 through 18 make up these births today, and are either
from the late
Generation Y group, or
are in the
Generation Z group.
1985–1990 marked the period with the fastest yearly population
change in world history. Even though the early 1960s had a greater
growth rate than in the mid and late 1980s, the population change
hovered around 83 million people in the five-year period, with an
all-time growth change of nearly 88 million in 1990. The reason is
that the world's population was greater in the mid- and late-1980s
(around 5 billion) than in the early 1960s (around 3 billion),
which meant that the growth rate in the 1980s was no factor on the
dramatic population change. People aged 19 to 24 make up these
births today, and are a part of Generation Y.
Forecast
UN (medium variant, 2008 rev.) and US Census Bureau (June
2009) estimates
| Year |
UN est
(billions)
|
Diff. |
US est
(billions)
|
Diff. |
| 2000 |
6.1 |
- |
6.0 |
- |
| 2010 |
6.9 |
0.8 |
6.8 |
0.8 |
| 2020 |
7.7 |
0.8 |
7.6 |
0.8 |
| 2030 |
8.3 |
0.6 |
8.3 |
0.7 |
| 2040 |
8.8 |
0.5 |
8.8 |
0.5 |
| 2050 |
9.1 |
0.3 |
9.3 |
0.5 |
In the long run, the future population growth of the world is
difficult to predict and the UN and US Census Bureau give different
estimates. It is estimated in February 2010 the world population
will hit 7 billion.
Birth
rates are declining slightly on average, but vary greatly
between developed countries (where birth rates are often at or
below replacement levels), developing countries, and different
ethnicities.
Death rates can change
unexpectedly due to
disease,
wars and catastrophes, or
advances in medicine.
The UN itself has issued multiple projections of future world
population, based on different assumptions. Over the last 10 years,
the UN had consistently revised these projections downward, until
the 2006 revision issued March 14, 2007 revised the 2050 mid-range
estimate upwards by 273 million.
The United States Census Bureau issued a revised forecast for world
population that increased its projection for the year 2050 to above
9.4 billion people (which was the UN's 1996 projection for 2050),
up from 9.1 billion people. A new US Census Bureau revision from
June 18, 2008 has increased its projections further, to beyond 9.5
billion in 2050.
Other projections are that the world's population will eventually
crest, though it is uncertain when or how. In some scenarios, it
will crest as early as around 2050 at under 9 billion, or 10 to 11
billion, due to gradually decreasing birth rates.
In other scenarios, disasters triggered by the growing population's
demand for scarce resources will eventually lead to a sudden
population crash, or even a
Malthusian catastrophe (also see
overpopulation and
food security).
UN 2008 estimates and medium variant projections (in
millions).
| Year |
World |
Asia |
Africa |
Europe |
Latin America |
Northern America |
Oceania |
| 2000 |
6,115 |
3,698 (60.5%) |
819 (13.4%) |
727 (11.9%) |
521 (8.5%) |
319 (5.2%) |
31 (0.5%) |
| 2005 |
6,512 |
3,937 (60.5%) |
921 (14.1%) |
729 (11.2%) |
557 (8.6%) |
335 (5.1%) |
34 (0.5%) |
| 2010 |
6,909 |
4,167 (60.3%) |
1,033 (15.0%) |
733 (10.6%) |
589 (8.5%) |
352 (5.1%) |
36 (0.5%) |
| 2015 |
7,302 |
4,391 (60.1%) |
1,153 (15.8%) |
734 (10.1%) |
618 (8.5%) |
368 (5.0%) |
38 (0.5%) |
| 2020 |
7,675 |
4,596 (59.9%) |
1,276 (16.6%) |
733 (9.6%) |
646 (8.4%) |
383 (5.0%) |
40 (0.5%) |
| 2025 |
8,012 |
4,773 (59.6%) |
1,400 (17.5%) |
729 (9.1%) |
670 (8.4%) |
398 (5.0%) |
43 (0.5%) |
| 2030 |
8,309 |
4,917 (59.2%) |
1,524 (18.3%) |
723 (8.7%) |
690 (8.3%) |
410 (4.9%) |
45 (0.5%) |
| 2035 |
8,571 |
5,032 (58.7%) |
1,647 (19.2%) |
716 (8.4%) |
706 (8.2%) |
421 (4.9%) |
46 (0.5%) |
| 2040 |
8,801 |
5,125 (58.2%) |
1,770 (20.1%) |
708 (8.0%) |
718 (8.2%) |
431 (4.9%) |
48 (0.5%) |
| 2045 |
8,996 |
5,193 (57.7%) |
1,887 (21.0%) |
700 (7.8%) |
726 (8.1%) |
440 (4.9%) |
50 (0.6%) |
| 2050 |
9,150 |
5,231 (57.2%) |
1,998 (21.8%) |
691 (7.6%) |
729 (8.0%) |
448 (4.9%) |
51 (0.6%) |
Predictions based on population growth
In 1798
Thomas Malthus incorrectly
predicted that population growth would outrun food supply by the
mid 19th century. In 1968,
Paul R.
Ehrlich reprised this argument in
The Population Bomb,
predicting
famine in the 1970s and 1980s. The
dire predictions of Ehrlich and other
neo-Malthusian were vigorously challenged
by a number of
economists, notably
Julian Lincoln Simon.
Agricultural research already under
way, such as the
green revolution,
led to dramatic improvements in crop yields. Food production has
kept pace with population growth, but Malthusians point out the
green revolution relies heavily on
petroleum-based
fertilizers, and that many crops have become so
genetically uniform that a crop failure would be very widespread.
Food prices in the early 21st century are rising sharply on a
global scale, and causing serious malnutrition to spread
widely.
From 1950 to 1984, as the
Green
Revolution transformed
agriculture
around the world, grain production increased by over 250%. The
energy for the Green Revolution was provided by
fossil fuels in the form of
fertilizers (natural gas),
pesticides (oil), and
hydrocarbon-fueled
irrigation. The peaking of world oil production
(
Peak oil) may test Malthus and
Ehrlich critics.
As of May 2008, the price of grain has been pushed up by increased farming for use
in biofuels, world oil
prices at over $140 per barrel ($880/m3), global
population growth, climate change, loss of agricultural land to residential and industrial
development, and growing consumer demand in China
and India
.
Food riot
have recently occurred in many countries across the world.
Growing populations, falling energy sources and food shortages will
create the "perfect storm" by 2030, the UK government chief
scientist has warned. He said food reserves are at a 50-year low
but the world requires 50% more energy, food and water by 2030. The
world will have to produce 70% more food by 2050 to feed a
projected extra 2.3 billion people and as incomes rise, the United
Nations'
Food and
Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said.
The world population has grown by about four billion since the
beginning of the Green Revolution and most believe that, without
the Revolution, there would be greater
famine
and
malnutrition than the UN presently
documents (approximately 850 million people suffering from chronic
malnutrition in 2005).
Number of humans who have ever lived
In the 1970s it was a popular belief that 75% of all the people who
had ever lived were alive in the 1970s, which would have put the
total number of people who ever lived as of the 1970s as less than
the current number of people alive today. This view was eventually
debunked as a myth. A more recent estimate of the total number of
people who have ever lived was prepared by
Carl Haub of the
Population Reference Bureau in
1995 and subsequently updated in 2002; the updated figure was
approximately 106 billion. Haub characterized this figure as an
estimate which required "selecting population sizes for different
points from antiquity to the present and applying assumed birth
rates to each period". Given an estimated global population of 6.2
billion in 2002, it could be inferred that about 6% of all people
who had ever existed were alive in 2002.
Other estimates of the total number of people who have ever lived
range approximately from 100 billion to 115 billion. It is
difficult to estimate for the following reasons:
- The set of specific characteristics which define a human and
distinguish early Homo sapiens from earlier or related
species continues to be a subject of intense research and debate.
It is thus not possible to know when to begin the count, nor which
hominids to include. See in this regard also Sorites paradox. Even if the scientific
community reached wide consensus regarding which characteristics
distinguished human beings, it would be nearly impossible to
pinpoint the time of their first appearance to even the nearest
millennium because the fossil record is simply too sparse. Only a
few thousand fossils of early humans have been found, most no
bigger than a tooth or a knucklebone. These bone fragments are used
to extrapolate the population distribution of millions of early
human beings spread across the continents. However, the limited
size of population in early times compared to its recent size makes
this source of uncertainty of limited importance.
- Robust statistical data only exist for the last two or three
centuries. Until the late 18th century, few nations, kingdoms, or
empires had ever performed an accurate
census. In many early attempts, such as Ancient Egypt and in the Persian Empire the focus was on counting
merely a subset of the people for purposes of taxation or military
service. All claims of population sizes preceding the 18th century
are estimates, and thus the margin of error for the total number of
humans who have ever lived should be in the billions, or even tens
of billions of people.
- A critical item for the estimation is life expectancy. Using a
figure of 20 years and the population estimates above, one can
compute about 58 billion. Using a figure of 40 yields half of that.
Life expectancy varies greatly when taking into account children
who died within the first year of birth, a number very difficult to
estimate for earlier times.
See also
Further resources
- There is a map that is rescaled in order to display every
country according to its population size. It is available at the
University of Sheffield Worldmapper.
- Population patterns and trends can be explored on the GeoHive
interactive world atlas.
References
- U.S. Census Bureau - World POPClock
Projection
- World population estimates
- World Population Clock — Worldometers
- International Data Base (IDB) — World
Population
- Population estimates of the Roman Empire, Dr.
Kenneth W. Harl
- Europe's Black Death is a history lesson in human
tragedy — and economic renewal. TIME Europe. July 17, 2000 VOL.
156 NO. 3
- Ming Dynasty. Microsoft Encarta Online
Encyclopedia 2009.
- History of Europe – Demographics. Encyclopædia
Britannica.
- China's Population: Readings and Maps. Columbia
University, East Asian Curriculum Project.
- The Columbian Exchange. The University of North
Carolina.
- Super-Sized Cassava Plants May Help Fight Hunger In
Africa. The Ohio State University
- Maize Streak Virus-Resistant Transgenic Maize: an
African solution to an African Problem. Scitizen. August 7,
2007
- Savoring Africa in the New World by Robert L.
Hall Millersville University
- Native American (indigenous peoples of Canada and
United States). Encyclopædia Britannica.
- The Story Of... Smallpox – and other Deadly Eurasian
Germs. Public Broadcasting Service (PBS).
- Stacy Goodling, "Effects of European Diseases on
the Inhabitants of the New World"
- Population crises and cycles in history. A review of
the book Population Crises and Population cycles by Claire
Russell and W.M.S. Russell.
- Mabel C. Buer, Health, Wealth and Population in the Early
Days of the Industrial Revolution, London: George Routledge
& Sons, 1926, page 30 ISBN 0-415-38218-1
- BBC - History - The Foundling Hospital.
Published: 2001-05-01.
- Modernization - Population Change.
Encyclopædia Britannica.
- " United States People". Microsoft Encarta Online
Encyclopedia 2009.
- BBC - History - Victorian Medicine - From Fluke to
Theory. Published: 2002-02-01.
- " 19th-Century Medicine". Microsoft Encarta
Online Encyclopedia 2009.
- A portrait of Britain in 2031. The Independent.
October 24, 2007.
- Reintegrating India with the World Economy.
Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Hundreds of millions in South Asia face growing
water stress, UN report warns. UN News Centre. February 6,
2009.
- Java (island, Indonesia). Encyclopædia
Britannica.
- From Traitors to Heroes: 100 Years of Mexican
Migration Policies. Jorge Durand, University of Guadalajara.
March 2004.
- World
Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population
Database
- The World at un.org
- Population Growth over Human History
- Geo Hive: the population of continents, regions and
countries (Jul. 1, 2008)
- UN report 2004 data
- fewer than 15,000 individuals according to the Toba
catastrophe theory; see also Humans lived in tiny, separate bands for 100,000
years (breitbart.com)
- an average of figures from different sources as listed at the
US Census Bureau's Historical Estimates of World Population; see also
*Kremer,
Michael. 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One
Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics 108(3):
681-716.
- The range of figures from different sources as listed at the US
Census Bureau's Historical Estimates of World Population put the
population at AD 1 between 170 million to 400 million.
- The limits of a Green Revolution?
- The Real Green Revolution
- World Population to 2300 Economic and Social
Affairs, United Nations, 2004
- census.gov
- Current world population (ranked)
- Ron Nielsen, The little green handbook, Picador, New
York (2006) ISBN 0-312-42581-3
- UN 2006 report higlights.
- UN population
estimates and projections, database query, August 2009.
- Hoerner, von S. Journal of British Interplanetary Society 28691
(1975)
- Sergei P Kapitza. The phenomenological theory of world
population growth. Physics-Uspekhi 39(1) 57-71 (1996).
- Letters to Nature: Doubling of world population
unlikelyNature, 19 June 1997
- The Monaco government uses a smaller surface area figure
resulting in a population density of 18,078 per km².
- Population density calculated using surface area and population
figures from the CIA World Factbook.
- Latest figure from the World Bank Development Indicators Database
is 1,090 per km².
- Hong Kong's population statistic is maintained separately by
Census and Statistics Department of the
Hong Kong Government, while Macau's
population statistic is maintained by [
[http://www.dsec.gov.mo/default.aspx?lang=en-US Statistics and
Census Service] of the Macau Government
- Age structure of the world – 2006 CIA World
Factbook
- World
Population Prospects - The 2008 Revision Population
Database
- US Census Bureau - Total Midyear Population for the
World: 1950-2050
- World
population prospects: the 2004 revision population
database
- The World at Six Billion
- The global grain bubble
- Food crisis will take hold before climate change,
warns chief scientist
- Global food crisis looms as climate change and fuel
shortages bite
- Experts: Global Food Shortages Could ‘Continue for
Decades'
- Has Urbanization Caused a Loss to Agricultural
Land?
- The World's Growing Food-Price Crisis
- The cost of food: Facts and figures. BBC News. October
16, 2008.
- Riots and hunger feared as demand for grain sends
food costs soaring
- Already we have riots, hoarding, panic: the sign of
things to come?
- Feed the world? We are fighting a losing battle, UN
admits
- World faces 'perfect storm' of problems by 2030,
chief scientist to warn. The Guardian. March 18, 2009.
- Global crisis 'to strike by 2030'. BBC News.
March 19, 2009.
- Global food production will have to increase 70%
for additional 2.3 billion people by 2050. Finfacts.com.
September 24, 2009.
- The limits of a Green Revolution?. BBC News.
March 29, 2007.
- Population Reference Bureau
- Note: text of paper publication slightly different than
text of on-line publication
- Kuhrt, A. (1995) The Ancient Near East c. 3000–330BC Vol 2
Routledge, London. p. 695.
- ;
- Global Statistics interactive atlas, GeoHive.
External links